Explore: Forecasting Methodology

2Foresight

The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future

By Denis Loveridge

Since the early 1990s interest in foresight has undergone one of its periodic resurgences and has led to a rapid growth in formal foresight studies backed by governments and transnational institutions, including many from the United Nations. However, texts that counterbalance in depth practical experience with an exposition and integration of the many theoretical strands that underpin the art and theory of foresight are rare. Foresight: The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future provides entrepreneurs, business leaders, investors, inventors, scientists, politicians, and many others with a succinct, integrated guide to understanding foresight studies and using them as means for strategy development. The text dispels the belief that anticipations are 'mere guesswork', and conveys the depth of thought needed, implicitly or explicitly, to understand human foresight. The book examines: The role of foresight and its institutional counterpart in the modern world The epistemology underlying foresight The need to extend foresight activity into wider spheres, including sustainable development The role that foresight plays in planning processes (including scenario planning) Much of the material in the book is based upon the internationally known foresight course at the Manchester Business School's Institute of Innovation Research (MIoIR) formerly PREST, which the author developed and directed from1999 to 2003.

Since the early 1990s interest in foresight has undergone one of its periodic resurgences and has led to a rapid growth in formal foresight studies backed by governments and transnational institutions, including many from the United Nations. However, texts that counterbalance in depth practical experience with an exposition and integration of the many theoretical strands that underpin the art and theory of foresight are rare. Foresight: The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future provides entrepreneurs, business leaders, investors, inventors, scientists, politicians, and many others with a succinct, integrated guide to understanding foresight studies and using them as means for strategy development. The text dispels the belief that anticipations are 'mere guesswork', and conveys the depth of thought needed, implicitly or explicitly, to understand human foresight. The book examines: The role of foresight and its institutional counterpart in the modern world The epistemology underlying foresight The need to extend foresight activity into wider spheres, including sustainable development The role that foresight plays in planning processes (including scenario planning) Much of the material in the book is based upon the internationally known foresight course at the Manchester Business School's Institute of Innovation Research (MIoIR) formerly PREST, which the author developed and directed from1999 to 2003.

4Conflict Projections in U.S. Central Command

Incorporating Climate Change

By Mark Toukan, Stephen Watts, Emily Allendorf, Jeffrey Martini, Karen M Sudkamp, Nathan Chandler and Maggie Habib

This report addresses how climate change could affect the frequency of conflict in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AOR). The report begins with an examination of how the current literature characterizes the relationship between climate change and the incidence of conflict. The report then presents conflict projections out to 2070 for the AOR at the provincial level. The projections are made on the basis of a machine learning framework that uses historical data to train and validate a forecasting model. The projections incorporate anticipated changes in temperature and levels of precipitation, although these climate factors are used to complement other known drivers of conflict, such as an area's political and economic development. This is followed by an analysis of why the strength of the relationship between climate change and future conflict could be underestimated by the consensus in the field and the modeling in this report. The report ends with a modeling excursion that shows how drought could increase conflict risk by affecting economic growth. The purpose of this research is to support CENTCOM leadership and planners and their interagency partners to prepare for a future security environment that is affected by climate change. Understanding the frequency of future conflict in the AOR, as well as the marginal increase that is owed to climate change as a threat multiplier, will enable the U.S. government to better prepare for this future. This report is the third in a series focused on climate change and the security environment.