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“Predicting The Differential Course Of Every-day Life Psychotic Experiences Across The Psychosis Liability Spectrum” Metadata:

  • Title: ➤  Predicting The Differential Course Of Every-day Life Psychotic Experiences Across The Psychosis Liability Spectrum
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Over the last decades, extensive research has been conducted to identify predictors for the development and prospective course of psychotic symptoms. One line of research has mainly focused on categorical outcome over a longer period of time e.g. investigating predictors for remission or relapse in individuals diagnosed with psychotic disorders (Lee et al., 2022; Soldatos et al., 2022) or the risk for transition to psychosis in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) (Oliver et al., 2020). Another line of research investigated potential predictors of moment-to-moment fluctuation in everyday life psychotic experiences as measured with Experience Sampling Method (ESM)(Myin-Germeys et al., 2018). Interestingly, both cohort studies, as well as ESM studies have highlighted the potential impact of experienced stressful events and affective disturbances on the course of symptoms on a macro and micro-level suggesting an affective pathway to psychosis (Isvoranu, van Borkulo, Boyette, Wigman, Vinkers, & Borsboom, 2017; Myin-Germeys & van Os, 2007; Schirmbeck et al., 2021). Regarding the broad perspective over several years, traumatic childhood experiences and other experienced stressful events have been associated with an increased risk for transition to psychosis in CHR-P (Kraan et al., 2018; Oliver et al., 2020; Radua et al., 2018), worse clinical outcome in psychotic disorders (Turner et al., 2019) and persistent psychotic experience in the general population (Collip et al., 2013). Affective disturbances have been found to mediate the association between experienced trauma and psychosis (Isvoranu et al., 2017; Qiao et al., 2023; Rauschenberg, van Os, Cremers, Goedhart, Schieveld, & Reininghaus, 2017) and between genetic and environmental risk factors and increased delusional ideation (van Os et al., 2022). On a day-to-day basis, ESM studies found increased negative affect in general and as increased stress-sensitivity in particular to be associated with higher positive symptoms (Klippel et al., 2017; Kramer et al., 2014; Monsonet, Rockwood, Kwapil, & Barrantes-Vidal, 2022), supporting the proposed affective pathway. In addition, in a recent qualitative study individuals with lived experiences themselves stated that feeling stressed or overwhelmed was an important potential trigger for psychotic symptoms(de Thurah, Kiekens, Sips, Teixeira, Kasanova, & Myin-Germeys, 2023). However, ESM studies investigating time-lagged effects of perceived stress or affective disturbances on subsequent development of psychotic experiences have been heterogeneous, sometimes finding predictive effects (e.g. of increased negative affect)(Kramer et al., 2014; Monsonet, Kwapil, & Barrantes-Vidal, 2022), sometimes failing to find effects across two measurement occasions (Klippel, Schick, Myin-Germeys, Rauschenberg, Vaessen, & Reininghaus, 2022). One possible explanation may be the small assessment intervals (on average 90min) between measurement occasions, which might be too small to observe relevant within-subject variation and associations. On the other hand, the large assessment intervals in cohort studies and the focus on broad pre-defined categorical outcome measures (transition, remission, relapse rates) might overlook relevant variation and cannot rule out unmeasured confounding effects(Morgan et al., 2022; Schirmbeck et al., 2021). Hence the challenge is to find an assessment scheme that fits relevant change in the phenomenon of interest (psychotic experiences) (Shiffman, Stone, & Hufford, 2008). Only more recently research not only focused on the effect of negative emotional disturbances on psychotic experiences but integrated positive affect (Ader et al., 2022; Orth et al., 2022) and possible factors of resilience such as self-esteem and social support(Daemen, van Amelsvoort, Group, & Reininghaus, 2022; Monsonet, Kwapil, & Barrantes-Vidal, 2020) as potential predictors. With the current study we aim to further unravel potential mechanisms in the course of psychotic experiences by choosing an ‘in-between’ window of observation (day-to-day) and broaden our perspective of potential predictors. We therefore aim to identify trajectories of psychotic experiences over a period of six days and assess the prognostic validity of several risk and resilience factors on these trajectories. In a second analysis we will investigate which variables predict within-subject change in reported psychotic experiences on a day-to-day basis. We will conduct analyses using data from subjects across the psychosis liability spectrum, who previously took part in the INTERACT (Reininghaus et al., 2019) or GROUP study (Korver, Quee, Boos, Simons, & de Haan, 2012). The combined sample(n=342) will include patients with psychotic disorder in a later illness stage, first episode patients (FEP) with psychosis and subjects at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P). The objectives are: i. We first aim to identify differential trajectories of the course of psychotic experiences over a period of six days across all groups. ii. We will investigate the predictive validity of baseline experienced stress, (physical) activity, positive and negative affect, coping strategies, self-esteem, drug use, and sleep on identified trajectories, while accounting for a-priori defined covariates. iii. We will zoom in and investigate whether identified predictors account for subsequent within-subject change in psychotic experiences on the following day(s) (t, t+1, t+2, t+3…) iv. Exploratory analyses: Although we expect to find similar psychological mechanisms associated with the course of psychotic experiences across subclinical, and clinical expressions (Monsonet, Kwapil, & Barrantes-Vidal, 2022), we aim to conduct sensitivity analyses to explore whether identified trajectories and the predictive validity of specific risk and resilience factors may differ between illness stages by conducting additional within groups analyses (later (GROUP) vs. earlier illness stage (INTERACT)).

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