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Single-point probabilities of weather conditions, which are easily estimated from climatic records, have been extended to lines and areas by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation was accomplished using the Boehm Sawtooth Wave (BSW) model. This model was chosen because of its speed and simplicity, and because it has a spatial correlation function similar to that of many weather elements. The BSW model generates fields (or maps) of normally distributed values called Equivalent Normal Deviates (ENDs). The procedure was to obtain the cumulative probability distribution for threshold END values. To do this, a large number of maps had to be generated, 25,000 in all, to approximate the true probability distributions. This was done for 12 different sized square areas and lines. The results were put in graphical form by plotting the probabilities as a function of areal and lineal size, and fitting them to curves through hand analysis. The curves were then fitted by equations, making it possible to obtain solutions quickly by computer. Thus, a model has been produced that can be used to estimate the probability that a certain weather condition will cover a given area or length, or fraction of an area or length.

1Münchhausen

By Gottfried August Bürger

Wunderbare Reisen zu Wasser und zu Lande - Feldzüge und lustige Abenteuer des Freiherrn von Münchhausen, wie er dieselben bei der Flasche im Zirkel seiner Freunde selbst zu erzählen pflegt. <br><br> * Die Geschichten von Münchhausen gehören in die Tradition der Lügengeschichten, die weit in die Literaturgeschichte zurückreicht. Die historische Person Hieronymus Carl Friedrich von Münchhausen erzählte vielleicht schon während seiner Stationierung in Riga, sicher aber nach seiner Rückkehr nach Bodenwerder etwa von 1755 an im Freundeskreis auf besondere Art Lügengeschichten und erreichte damit überregionale Bekanntheit. Nur von vier Geschichten im später erschienenen Buch weiß man, dass er sie wirklich erzählt hat. (Summary by Wikipedia)