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The Separatrix Algorithm For Synthesis And Analysis Of Stochastic Simulations With Applications In Disease Modeling. by Klein%2c Daniel J.
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1The Separatrix Algorithm For Synthesis And Analysis Of Stochastic Simulations With Applications In Disease Modeling.
By Klein, Daniel J., Baym, Michael and Eckhoff, Philip
This article is from PLoS ONE , volume 9 . Abstract Decision makers in epidemiology and other disciplines are faced with the daunting challenge of designing interventions that will be successful with high probability and robust against a multitude of uncertainties. To facilitate the decision making process in the context of a goal-oriented objective (e.g., eradicate polio by ), stochastic models can be used to map the probability of achieving the goal as a function of parameters. Each run of a stochastic model can be viewed as a Bernoulli trial in which “success” is returned if and only if the goal is achieved in simulation. However, each run can take a significant amount of time to complete, and many replicates are required to characterize each point in parameter space, so specialized algorithms are required to locate desirable interventions. To address this need, we present the Separatrix Algorithm, which strategically locates parameter combinations that are expected to achieve the goal with a user-specified probability of success (e.g. 95%). Technically, the algorithm iteratively combines density-corrected binary kernel regression with a novel information-gathering experiment design to produce results that are asymptotically correct and work well in practice. The Separatrix Algorithm is demonstrated on several test problems, and on a detailed individual-based simulation of malaria.
“The Separatrix Algorithm For Synthesis And Analysis Of Stochastic Simulations With Applications In Disease Modeling.” Metadata:
- Title: ➤ The Separatrix Algorithm For Synthesis And Analysis Of Stochastic Simulations With Applications In Disease Modeling.
- Authors: Klein, Daniel J.Baym, MichaelEckhoff, Philip
- Language: English
Edition Identifiers:
- Internet Archive ID: pubmed-PMC4117517
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The book is available for download in "texts" format, the size of the file-s is: 11.82 Mbs, the file-s for this book were downloaded 83 times, the file-s went public at Sat Oct 11 2014.
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