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We should dispense with use of the confusing term "null hypothesis" in educational research reports. To explain why the term should be dropped, the nature of, and relationship between, scientific and statistical hypothesis testing is clarified by explication of (a) the scientific reasoning used by Gregor Mendel in testing specific hypotheses derived from his general inheritance theory and (b) the statistical reasoning used in applying the chi-square statistic to his experimental data. The Mendel example is followed by application of the same pattern of scientific and statistical reasoning to educational examples. A better understanding of the related, but separate, processes of scientific and statistical hypothesis testing, including the role of scientific hypotheses (i.e., proposed explanations) and scientific predictions (i.e., expected test results), not only reveals why null statistical hypotheses and predictions need not be stated, but also reveals how we can improve the clarity of our research reports and improve the quality of the research reported by insuring that alternative scientific hypotheses and theories are in fact tested.

cover-title, 51 pages ; 27 cm

In the e-learning context, social network analysis (SNA) can be used to build understanding around the ways students participate and interact in online forums. This study contributes to the growing body of research that uses statistical methods to test hypotheses about structures in social networks. Specifically, we show how statistical analysis can be used to examine the effect of students' past online interactions on their later participatory behavior, and to synthesize results across multiple networks. [This paper was published in: "Companion Proceedings 8th International Conference on Learning Analytics & Knowledge (LAK18)," 2018.]

Testing Statistical Hypotheses

Testing Statistical Hypotheses

Testing Statistical Hypotheses

Testing Statistical Hypotheses

Testing Statistical Hypotheses

Testing Statistical Hypotheses

Much of science is (rightly or wrongly) driven by hypothesis testing. Even in situations where the hypothesis testing paradigm is correct, the common practice of basing inferences solely on p-values has been under intense criticism for over 50 years. We propose, as an alternative, the use of the odds of a correct rejection of the null hypothesis to incorrect rejection. Both pre-experimental versions (involving the power and Type I error) and post-experimental versions (depending on the actual data) are considered. Implementations are provided that range from depending only on the p-value to consideration of full Bayesian analysis. A surprise is that all implementations -- even the full Bayesian analysis -- have complete frequentist justification. Versions of our proposal can be implemented that require only minor modifications to existing practices yet overcome some of their most severe shortcomings.

Much of science is (rightly or wrongly) driven by hypothesis testing. Even in situations where the hypothesis testing paradigm is correct, the common practice of basing inferences solely on p-values has been under intense criticism for over 50 years. We propose, as an alternative, the use of the odds of a correct rejection of the null hypothesis to incorrect rejection. Both pre-experimental versions (involving the power and Type I error) and post-experimental versions (depending on the actual data) are considered. Implementations are provided that range from depending only on the p-value to consideration of full Bayesian analysis. A surprise is that all implementations -- even the full Bayesian analysis -- have complete frequentist justification. Versions of our proposal can be implemented that require only minor modifications to existing practices yet overcome some of their most severe shortcomings.

Much of science is (rightly or wrongly) driven by hypothesis testing. Even in situations where the hypothesis testing paradigm is correct, the common practice of basing inferences solely on p-values has been under intense criticism for over 50 years. We propose, as an alternative, the use of the odds of a correct rejection of the null hypothesis to incorrect rejection. Both pre-experimental versions (involving the power and Type I error) and post-experimental versions (depending on the actual data) are considered. Implementations are provided that range from depending only on the p-value to consideration of full Bayesian analysis. A surprise is that all implementations -- even the full Bayesian analysis -- have complete frequentist justification. Versions of our proposal can be implemented that require only minor modifications to existing practices yet overcome some of their most severe shortcomings.

Let $v$ be a vector field in a bounded open set $G\subset {\mathbb {R}}^d$. Suppose that $v$ is observed with a random noise at random points $X_i, i=1,...,n,$ that are independent and uniformly distributed in $G.$ The problem is to estimate the integral curve of the differential equation \[\frac{dx(t)}{dt}=v(x(t)),\qquad t\geq 0,x(0)=x_0\in G,\] starting at a given point $x(0)=x_0\in G$ and to develop statistical tests for the hypothesis that the integral curve reaches a specified set $\Gamma\subset G.$ We develop an estimation procedure based on a Nadaraya--Watson type kernel regression estimator, show the asymptotic normality of the estimated integral curve and derive differential and integral equations for the mean and covariance function of the limit Gaussian process. This provides a method of tracking not only the integral curve, but also the covariance matrix of its estimate. We also study the asymptotic distribution of the squared minimal distance from the integral curve to a smooth enough surface $\Gamma\subset G$. Building upon this, we develop testing procedures for the hypothesis that the integral curve reaches $\Gamma$. The problems of this nature are of interest in diffusion tensor imaging, a brain imaging technique based on measuring the diffusion tensor at discrete locations in the cerebral white matter, where the diffusion of water molecules is typically anisotropic. The diffusion tensor data is used to estimate the dominant orientations of the diffusion and to track white matter fibers from the initial location following these orientations. Our approach brings more rigorous statistical tools to the analysis of this problem providing, in particular, hypothesis testing procedures that might be useful in the study of axonal connectivity of the white matter.

We study statistical properties of the optimal value and optimal solutions of the Sample Average Approximation of risk averse stochastic problems. Central Limit Theorem type results are derived for the optimal value and optimal solutions when the stochastic program is expressed in terms of a law invariant coherent risk measure. The obtained results are applied to hypotheses testing problems aiming at comparing the optimal values of several risk averse convex stochastic programs on the basis of samples of the underlying random vectors. We also consider non-asymptotic tests based on confidence intervals on the optimal values of the stochastic programs obtained using the Stochastic Mirror Descent algorithm. Numerical simulations show how to use our developments to choose among different distributions and show the superiority of the asymptotic tests on a class of risk averse stochastic programs.

Journal of Research of the National Bureau of Standards