Downloads & Free Reading Options - Results

Subsynoptic convective areas are isloated, monitored and forecast through extrapolation and advection using McIDAS, (Man-Computer Interactive Data Access System), and interactive computer video-display system. Research on isolating the convective areas focuses on development of statistics using digital visual and IR GOES satellite data to delineate areal coverage and intensity. McIDAS algorithms have been developed to: (1) compute the brightness centroid; (2) form a best-fit ellipse to the region; and (3) compute areal average IR and normalized-visual brightness. Sequences of brightness centers and geometric outlines serve as input extrapolation routines to project system movement and change in area coverage and intensity. Research also has been initiated on using vertically-integrated wind fields to advect meteorological fields and disturbances. Preliminary results using these techniques for short-range forecast are presented.

A tool was developed for Monte Carlo simulation of life cycle costs using parametric cost modeling. Additionally, the analysis of the performance of parametric CER cost estimation has been cut down to a more manageable task. Models can be built and tested quickly and easily. Random deviate generators were researched and built. Several applicable statistical description routines were also implemented. Statistical integrity and great accuracy has been maintained, while made accessible through an intuitive, user friendly interface.

Technical report period : October 1985 - May 1987.

This report provides instruction for using the personal computer version of an interactive ratio forecasting program which can be used for developing forecasts of socioeconomic variables for small areas, Four commonly used methods are available in the program: basic ratio, average annual ratio, ratio difference, and shift share. These methods and their appropriate uses are described in the report. Keywords include: Ratio methods, Forecasting program, Program listing, Basic ratio, Annual ratio, Ratio difference, and Shift share.

The real-time treatment of interactive realistically varying aerosol in a global operational forecasting system, as opposed to prescribed (fixed or climatologically varying) aerosols, is a very difficult challenge that only recently begins to be addressed. Experiment results from a recent version of the NASA GEOS-5 forecasting system, inclusive of interactive aerosol treatment, are presented in this work. Four sets of 30 5-day forecasts are initialized from a high quality set of analyses previously produced and documented to cover the period from 15 August to 16 September 2006, which corresponds to the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (NAMMA) observing campaign. The four forecast sets are at two different horizontal resolutions and with and without interactive aerosol treatment. The net impact of aerosol, at times in which there is a strong dust outbreak, is a temperature increase at the dust level and decrease in the near-surface levels, in complete agreement with previous observational and modeling studies. Moreover, forecasts in which interactive aerosols are included depict an African Easterly (AEJ) at slightly higher elevation, and slightly displace northward, with respect to the forecasts in which aerosols are not include. The shift in the AEJ position goes in the direction of observations and agrees with previous results.

Work under this contract involving weather inference from GOES data and weather prediction is summarized. The research involved extrapolation and advection of meteorological events, a statistical study relating GOES data to surface thunderstorm observations, and investigating satellite indicators of short-term changes in surface visibility. (Author)

This report provides instruction for using an interactive ratio forecasting program which can be used for developing forecasts of socioeconomic variables for small areas. Four commonly used methods are available in the program: basic ratio, average annual ratio, ratio difference, and shift share. These methods and their appropriate uses are described in the report.

The products judged most useful in preparing short-range terminal forecasts included: (1) conventional geographic data displays presented simultaneously as four quadrant panels on one screen, (2) regional scale surface analyses, plots and data listings of basic variables, (3) satellite-based trajectory technique, (4) tailored plot displays such as the station-model time-series display, and (5) mapped displays of forecast guidance derived from the NMC LFM model. The importance of half-hourly visible and IR imagery from GOES in short-range terminal forecasting was confirmed in this experiment. The forecasters relied more heavily on it to prepare their forecasts than any other data source. The manipulation of digital imagery in a computer-based interactive graphics system through time-series looping, color enhancements, and overlaying conventional plots and analyses on it, provides a wealth of qualitative and quantitative guidance for fore- casting. The numerical forecasts yielded superior rmses compared to persistence for all forecast intervals and for each forecast element. Probability forecasts were substantially better than persistence probability and sample climatology. GEM showed skill relative to persistence probability but yielded larger rmses did persistence in its numerical form. MOS guidance was found to be useful for forecast intervals of 4 hr or longer.

The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

"Grocast: Interactive Sales Forecasting Dashboard": the project is developed by integrating Power BI into a prototype that provides for real-time visualization and analysis of sales data. The dashboard will have the facility for KPI tracking along with trend analysis in order to help the users make decisions from charts and reports. Thus, it raises a better operational efficiency in sales management with data driven decisions. Data collection will be conducted in a structured methodology that encompasses all aspects. This encompasses gathering requirements, designing and prototyping, implementation, testing, and even user training in the following. Future releases will include the addition of improvements in data integration, advanced analytics, enhanced mobile access, and one-click view for easier collaboration. In the long run, the "Grocast: Interactive Sales Forecasting Dashboard" will lead an organization toward a long-term vision of being more efficient in its operations and support the enhancement of sales strategies to support the growth of an organization. The "Grocast: Interactive Sales Forecasting Dashboard" project will provide a full, real-time platform for the visualization of general sales data with advanced analysis. The dashboard will allow the tracking of key metrics and will specify trends and performance drivers by means of an intuitive interface. This multiple source data integration will enable the digging down to specific areas, products, or periods and thus the solution will be stronger on a data-driven basis. This dashboard will be feature-customized and responsive in design to meet the specific needs of different users. It provides an efficient tool for monitoring sales performance, discovering opportunities for growth, and improving strategic planning across organizations.  The term GroCast refers to Grocery Forecasting.

Available from National Technical Information Service, Springfield, Va

This thesis is about computing life cycle cost and culminates with a life cycle cost forecasting tool (software). The software is written in FORTRAN 77 and uses IMSL subroutine extensively for random number generation from various distributions. The algorithm can compute life cycle cost for the following types of cost elements: constant, stochastic, and cost estimating relationships (CERs). The use of a trapezoid approximation of payment allocation is allowed. Percent allocation of payments is also allowed and is recommended where the trapezoid fails to correctly represent the payment schedule. The CER algorithm handles cost data that was estimated in base 10, in natural logarithm, or in logarithm.

GOES satellite imagery was used in conjunction with surface hourly weather observations in order to asccertain the ability of the satellite data to discriminate thunderstorm occurrence in regions with some cloudiness. Research was also conducted to study the ability of a vertically-integrated wind field to correctly advect observed surface frontal features. (Author)

This two volume report comprises the necessary information to effectively use a computerized procedure for estimating and forecasting municipal water requirements. The procedure, known as the IWR MAIN System, is a flexible and comprehensive planning tool for separately estimating residential, commercial/institutional, industrial, and public-unaccounted water sectors in a community. Within these sectors, requirements are further estimated for individual categories of water users, such as metered-sewered residencies, flat rate-sewered residences, commercial establishments, institutions, three-digit Standard Industrial Classification manufacturing categories, public usage and free service as well as unaccounted use. Estimates are made of mean annual, maximum day, and peak hour requirements. Volume I contains the users guide for interactive processing. It is the procedure by which a user creates or modifies data parameter files, modifies the library of water usage coefficients, runs the IWR MAIN Model, and selectively prints reports generated by the model. Volume II is the users manual. It documents the computer program and presents instructions for data preparation.

This report develops a model to forecast the total enlisted Marine Corps strength at the end of each quarter for one or two years into the future. The method involves a simple cohort model. The model is programmed in APL with a number of features which allow the user to interact in the forecasting procedure. He can introduce further projected retention policy changes or changes in the recruit population which might affect future predictions.

In the past thirty years, as military retirement costs have climbed from 1% of the defense budget to their current 8% level, the military retirement system (and, in particular, the non-disability retirement component) has come under increasing criticism and scrutiny by the Congress, the public, and the news media. Recommendations from previous studies of the military retirement system have proposed various modifications to the system to alleviate alleged inequities and inefficiencies, and to reduce costs. A BASIC-language computer model (ENTRYAGE) was developed in 1983 as part of a thesis to perform a sensitivity analysis on entry-age normal retirement cost methods to evaluate some of these recommendations. At the request of the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense, an effort was initiated to revise the program to produce results that replicate those of the Military Retirement System Projection and Actuarial Valuation Program (GORGO) developed by the DoD Actuary. This study has determined that the level of sophistication of the GORGO program far exceeds that of the ENTRYGE model, and the major re-programming effort required was beyond the scope of this study. However, the ENTRYAGE model was not user-friendly, required single-line data input, and would crash when the operator made an erroneous data entry. Therefore, the ENTRYAGE model was extensively revised to incorporate menus, prevent program crashes, present results in page format, and, in general, make it more user-friendly as an analytical tool. Keywords: theses; MILRET Computer Program.

The products judged most useful in preparing short-range terminal forecasts included (1) a station model time series display, (2) conventional geographic data displays presented simultaneously as four quadrant panels guidance on one screen, (3) mesoscale surface objective analyses, and (4) a forecast guidance prodecure based on 2-D upper-air trajectories and sensible weather algorithms based on imagery from the GOES satellite. The importance of half-hourly visible and IR imagery from the GOES satellite in short-range terminal forecasting was confirmed in this experiment. The participating forecasters relied more heavily on it to prepare their forecasts than any other source. The manipulation of digital imagery in a computer-based interactive graphic system through time-series looping, color enhancements, and overlaying conventional plots and analyses on it, provides a wealth of qualitative and quantitative guidance for forecasting. The numerical forecasts yielded superior rms errors compared to persistence at all forecast intervals except 1 h. At 4 h, the improvement over persistence ranged from about 21 percent for wind forecasts to about 34 percent for total cloud amount, while the 6-h quantitative precipitation forecasts yielded a 39 percent improvement.

Enhancements were applied to an existing tool designed to estimate life cycle costs. These enhancements provide greater ease of data manipulation, additional options in developing models, and the ability to make modifications to suit the needs of the user. Life cycle costs can be generated quickly and easily. Analysis proved the amount of work done by the computer could be reduced with no loss of information. Additionally, the paths available to the user are shown graphically through flow charts--aiding in the learning process. The efforts of the user can now be directed towards developing models instead of spending those efforts on deciphering how to make the tool work.

Enhancements were applied to an existing tool designed to estimate life cycle costs. These enhancements provide greater ease of data manipulation, additional options in developing models, and the ability to make modifications to suit the needs of the user. Life cycle costs can be generated quickly and easily. Analysis proved the amount of work done by the computer could be reduced with no loss of information. Additionally, the paths available to the user are shown graphically through flow charts--aiding in the learning process. The efforts of the user can now be directed towards developing models instead of spending those efforts on deciphering how to make the tool work.

This report describes the development of a model to forecast the total enlisted Marine Corps strength at the end of each quarter for 1 or 2 years into the future. The method involves the use of a simple cohort model, which has been implemented interactively and allows users to forecast the effects of changes in the recruit 2-3-4 year mix, education level, racial mix, or any combination. It also allows for gaming of the continuation rates, and provides long-range or steady-state results of a particular recruitment policies. (Author)

Technical report period : October 1985 - May 1987.

Title from cover

Title from cover

The purpose of this paper, is to review briefly the progress made in the analytical and behavioral development of land use forecasting models, to point to the modeling functions of special relevance to industrial land uses, and describe a new interactive computer model being developed at the Institute for Water Resources (IWR) of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

We develop predictive models of pedestrian dynamics by encoding the coupled nature of multi-pedestrian interaction using game theory, and deep learning-based visual analysis to estimate person-specific behavior parameters. Building predictive models for multi-pedestrian interactions however, is very challenging due to two reasons: (1) the dynamics of interaction are complex interdependent processes, where the predicted behavior of one pedestrian can affect the actions taken by others and (2) dynamics are variable depending on an individuals physical characteristics (e.g., an older person may walk slowly while the younger person may walk faster). To address these challenges, we (1) utilize concepts from game theory to model the interdependent decision making process of multiple pedestrians and (2) use visual classifiers to learn a mapping from pedestrian appearance to behavior parameters. We evaluate our proposed model on several public multiple pedestrian interaction video datasets. Results show that our strategic planning model explains human interactions 25% better when compared to state-of-the-art methods.