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We express the mean and variance terms in a double exponential regression model as additive functions of the predictors and use Bayesian variable selection to determine which predictors enter the model, and whether they enter linearly or flexibly. When the variance term is null we obtain a generalized additive model, which becomes a generalized linear model if the predictors enter the mean linearly. The model is estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation and the methodology is illustrated using real and simulated data sets.

Local smoothing testing that is based on multivariate nonparametric regression estimation is one of the main model checking methodologies in the literature. However, relevant tests suffer from the typical curse of dimensionality resulting in slow convergence rates to their limits under the null hypotheses and less deviation from the null under alternatives. This problem leads tests to not well maintain the significance level and to be less sensitive to alternatives. In this paper, a dimension-reduction model-adaptive test is proposed for generalized linear models. The test behaves like a local smoothing test as if the model were univariate, and can be consistent against any global alternatives and can detect local alternatives distinct from the null at a fast rate that existing local smoothing tests can achieve only when the model is univariate. Simulations are carried out to examine the performance of our methodology. A real data analysis is conducted for illustration. The method can readily be extended to global smoothing methodology and other testing problems.

We propose a generalized functional linear regression model for a regression situation where the response variable is a scalar and the predictor is a random function. A linear predictor is obtained by forming the scalar product of the predictor function with a smooth parameter function, and the expected value of the response is related to this linear predictor via a link function. If, in addition, a variance function is specified, this leads to a functional estimating equation which corresponds to maximizing a functional quasi-likelihood. This general approach includes the special cases of the functional linear model, as well as functional Poisson regression and functional binomial regression. The latter leads to procedures for classification and discrimination of stochastic processes and functional data. We also consider the situation where the link and variance functions are unknown and are estimated nonparametrically from the data, using a semiparametric quasi-likelihood procedure. An essential step in our proposal is dimension reduction by approximating the predictor processes with a truncated Karhunen-Loeve expansion. We develop asymptotic inference for the proposed class of generalized regression models. In the proposed asymptotic approach, the truncation parameter increases with sample size, and a martingale central limit theorem is applied to establish the resulting increasing dimension asymptotics. We establish asymptotic normality for a properly scaled distance between estimated and true functions that corresponds to a suitable L^2 metric and is defined through a generalized covariance operator.

This is a review of the relation between supersymmetric non-linear sigma models and target space geometry. In particular, we report on the derivation of generalized K\"ahler geometry from sigma models with additional spinorial superfields. Some of the results reviewed are: Generalized complex geometry from sigma models in the Lagrangian formulation; Coordinatization of generalized K\"ahler geometry in terms of chiral, twisted chiral and semi-chiral superfields; Generalized K\"ahler geometry from sigma models in the Hamiltonian formulation.

This article is from PeerJ , volume 1 . Abstract Niche theory predicts that species occurrence and abundance show non-linear, unimodal relationships with respect to environmental gradients. Unimodal models, such as the Gaussian (logistic) model, are however more difficult to fit to data than linear ones, particularly in a multi-species context in ordination, with trait modulated response and when species phylogeny and species traits must be taken into account. Adding squared terms to a linear model is a possibility but gives uninterpretable parameters.This paper explains why and when generalized linear mixed models, even without squared terms, can effectively analyse unimodal data and also presents a graphical tool and statistical test to test for unimodal response while fitting just the generalized linear mixed model. The R-code for this is supplied in Supplemental Information 1.

The stochastic expansion of the marginal quasi-likelihood function associated with a class of generalized linear models is shown. Based on the expansion, a quasi-Bayesian information criterion is proposed that is able to deal with misspecified models and dependent data, resulting in a theoretical extension of the classical Schwarz's Bayesian information criterion. It is also proved that the proposed criterion has model selection consistency with respect to the optimal model. Some illustrative numerical examples and a real data example are presented.

The purpose of this paper is to provide a discussion, with illustrating examples, on Bayesian forecasting for dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs). Adopting approximate Bayesian analysis, based on conjugate forms and on Bayes linear estimation, we describe the theoretical framework and then we provide detailed examples of response distributions, including binomial, Poisson, negative binomial, geometric, normal, log-normal, gamma, exponential, Weibull, Pareto, beta, and inverse Gaussian. We give numerical illustrations for all distributions (except for the normal). Putting together all the above distributions, we give a unified Bayesian approach to non-Gaussian time series analysis, with applications from finance and medicine to biology and the behavioural sciences. Throughout the models we discuss Bayesian forecasting and, for each model, we derive the multi-step forecast mean. Finally, we describe model assessment using the likelihood function, and Bayesian model monitoring.

The purpose of this paper is to provide a discussion, with illustrating examples, on Bayesian forecasting for dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs). Adopting approximate Bayesian analysis, based on conjugate forms and on Bayes linear estimation, we describe the theoretical framework and then we provide detailed examples of response distributions, including binomial, Poisson, negative binomial, geometric, normal, log-normal, gamma, exponential, Weibull, Pareto, beta, and inverse Gaussian. We give numerical illustrations for all distributions (except for the normal). Putting together all the above distributions, we give a unified Bayesian approach to non-Gaussian time series analysis, with applications from finance and medicine to biology and the behavioural sciences. Throughout the models we discuss Bayesian forecasting and, for each model, we derive the multi-step forecast mean. Finally, we describe model assessment using the likelihood function, and Bayesian model monitoring.

The purpose of this paper is to provide a discussion, with illustrating examples, on Bayesian forecasting for dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs). Adopting approximate Bayesian analysis, based on conjugate forms and on Bayes linear estimation, we describe the theoretical framework and then we provide detailed examples of response distributions, including binomial, Poisson, negative binomial, geometric, normal, log-normal, gamma, exponential, Weibull, Pareto, beta, and inverse Gaussian. We give numerical illustrations for all distributions (except for the normal). Putting together all the above distributions, we give a unified Bayesian approach to non-Gaussian time series analysis, with applications from finance and medicine to biology and the behavioural sciences. Throughout the models we discuss Bayesian forecasting and, for each model, we derive the multi-step forecast mean. Finally, we describe model assessment using the likelihood function, and Bayesian model monitoring.

Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) and Single Index Models (SIMs) provide powerful generalizations of linear regression, where the target variable is assumed to be a (possibly unknown) 1-dimensional function of a linear predictor. In general, these problems entail non-convex estimation procedures, and, in practice, iterative local search heuristics are often used. Kalai and Sastry (2009) recently provided the first provably efficient method for learning SIMs and GLMs, under the assumptions that the data are in fact generated under a GLM and under certain monotonicity and Lipschitz constraints. However, to obtain provable performance, the method requires a fresh sample every iteration. In this paper, we provide algorithms for learning GLMs and SIMs, which are both computationally and statistically efficient. We also provide an empirical study, demonstrating their feasibility in practice.

This paper studies estimation of the parameters of generalized linear models in canonical form when the explanatory vector is measured with independent normal error. For the functional case, i.e., when the explanatory vectors are fixed constants, unbiased score functions are obtained by conditioning on certain sufficient statistics. This work generalizes results obtained for logistic regression. In the case that the explanatory vectors are independent and identically distributed with unknown distribtuion, efficient score functions are obtained using the theory developed in Begun et al. (1983). Keywords: Conditional score function; Efficient score function; Functional model; Generalized linear model; Measurement error; Structural model.

Maxwell models for nonlinear kinetic equations have many applications in physics, dynamics of granular gases, economy, etc. In the present manuscript we consider such models from a very general point of view, including those with arbitrary polynomial non-linearities and in any dimension space. It is shown that the whole class of generalized Maxwell models satisfies properties which one of them can be interpreted as an operator generalization of usual Lipschitz conditions. This property allows to describe in detail a behavior of solutions to the corresponding initial value problem. In particular, we prove in the most general case an existence of self similar solutions and study the convergence, in the sense of probability measures, of dynamically scaled solutions to the Cauchy problem to those self-similar solutions, as time goes to infinity. The properties of these self-similar solutions, leading to non classical equilibrium stable states, are studied in detail. We apply the results to three different specific problems related to the Boltzmann equation (with elastic and inelastic interactions) and show that all physically relevant properties of solutions follow directly from the general theory developed in this paper.

We propose a two-step estimating procedure for generalized additive partially linear models with clustered data using estimating equations. Our proposed method applies to the case that the number of observations per cluster is allowed to increase with the number of independent subjects. We establish oracle properties for the two-step estimator of each function component such that it performs as well as the univariate function estimator by assuming that the parametric vector and all other function components are known. Asymptotic distributions and consistency properties of the estimators are obtained. Finite-sample experiments with both simulated continuous and binary response variables confirm the asymptotic results. We illustrate the methods with an application to a U.S. unemployment data set.

We consider testing regression coefficients in high dimensional generalized linear models. An investigation of the test of Goeman et al. (2011) is conducted, which reveals that if the inverse of the link function is unbounded, the high dimensionality in the covariates can impose adverse impacts on the power of the test. We propose a test formation which can avoid the adverse impact of the high dimensionality. When the inverse of the link function is bounded such as the logistic or probit regression, the proposed test is as good as Goeman et al. (2011)'s test. The proposed tests provide p-values for testing significance for gene-sets as demonstrated in a case study on an acute lymphoblastic leukemia dataset.

We rewrite the N=(2,2) non-linear sigma model using auxiliary spinorial superfields defining the model on ${\cal T}\oplus^ *{\cal T}$, where ${\cal T}$ is the tangent bundle of the target space. This is motivated by possible connections to Hitchin's generalized complex structures. We find the general form of the second supersymmetry compatible with that of the original model.

We extend nonparametric generalized linear models to allow both the mean curve and the response distribution to be nonparametric. The seemingly intractable task of working with two infinite-dimensional parameters is shown to be reducible to a finite optimization problem, which is easily implemented via existing algorithms. We demonstrate using various examples that the proposed approach can be a flexible tool for data analysis in its own right, but can also be useful for model selection and diagnosis in a more classical generalized linear model framework.

We show that the mean-model parameter is always orthogonal to the error distribution in generalized linear models. Thus, the maximum likelihood estimator of the mean-model parameter will be asymptotically efficient regardless of whether the error distribution is known completely, known up to a finite vector of parameters, or left completely unspecified, in which case the likelihood is taken to be an appropriate semiparametric likelihood. Moreover, the maximum likelihood estimator of the mean-model parameter will be asymptotically independent of the maximum likelihood estimator of the error distribution. This generalizes some well-known results for the special cases of normal, gamma and multinomial regression models, and, perhaps more interestingly, suggests that asymptotically efficient estimation and inferences can always be obtained if the error distribution is nonparametrically estimated along with the mean. In contrast, estimation and inferences using misspecified error distributions or variance functions are generally not efficient.

While linear mixed modeling methods are foundational concepts introduced in any statistical education, adequate general methods for interval estimation involving models with more than a few variance components are lacking, especially in the unbalanced setting. Generalized fiducial inference provides a possible framework that accommodates this absence of methodology. Under the fabric of generalized fiducial inference along with sequential Monte Carlo methods, we present an approach for interval estimation for both balanced and unbalanced Gaussian linear mixed models. We compare the proposed method to classical and Bayesian results in the literature in a simulation study of two-fold nested models and two-factor crossed designs with an interaction term. The proposed method is found to be competitive or better when evaluated based on frequentist criteria of empirical coverage and average length of confidence intervals for small sample sizes. A MATLAB implementation of the proposed algorithm is available from the authors.

The problem of evaluation of Lyapunov exponent in queueing network analysis is considered based on models and methods of idempotent algebra. General existence conditions for Lyapunov exponent to exist in generalized linear stochastic dynamic systems are given, and examples of evaluation of the exponent for systems with matrices of particular types are presented. A method which allow one to get the exponent is proposed based on some appropriate decomposition of the system matrix. A general approach to modeling of a wide class of queueing networks is taken to provide for models in the form of stochastic dynamic systems. It is shown how to find the mean service cycle time for the networks through the evaluation of Lyapunov exponent for their associated dynamic systems. As an illustration, the mean service time is evaluated for some systems including open and closed tandem queues with finite and infinite buffers, fork-join networks, and systems with round-robin routing.

In biomedical studies, researchers are often interested in assessing the association between one or more ordinal explanatory variables and an outcome variable, at the same time adjusting for covariates of any type. The outcome variable may be continuous, binary, or represent censored survival times. In the absence of precise knowledge of the response function, using monotonicity constraints on the ordinal variables improves efficiency in estimating parameters, especially when sample sizes are small. An active set algorithm that can efficiently compute such estimators is proposed, and a characterization of the solution is provided. Having an efficient algorithm at hand is especially relevant when applying likelihood ratio tests in restricted generalized linear models, where one needs the value of the likelihood at the restricted maximizer. The algorithm is illustrated on a real life data set from oncology.

In biomedical studies, researchers are often interested in assessing the association between one or more ordinal explanatory variables and an outcome variable, at the same time adjusting for covariates of any type. The outcome variable may be continuous, binary, or represent censored survival times. In the absence of precise knowledge of the response function, using monotonicity constraints on the ordinal variables improves efficiency in estimating parameters, especially when sample sizes are small. An active set algorithm that can efficiently compute such estimators is proposed, and a characterization of the solution is provided. Having an efficient algorithm at hand is especially relevant when applying likelihood ratio tests in restricted generalized linear models, where one needs the value of the likelihood at the restricted maximizer. The algorithm is illustrated on a real life data set from oncology.

We consider Bayesian model selection in generalized linear models that are high-dimensional, with the number of covariates p being large relative to the sample size n, but sparse in that the number of active covariates is small compared to p. Treating the covariates as random and adopting an asymptotic scenario in which p increases with n, we show that Bayesian model selection using certain priors on the set of models is asymptotically equivalent to selecting a model using an extended Bayesian information criterion. Moreover, we prove that the smallest true model is selected by either of these methods with probability tending to one. Having addressed random covariates, we are also able to give a consistency result for pseudo-likelihood approaches to high-dimensional sparse graphical modeling. Experiments on real data demonstrate good performance of the extended Bayesian information criterion for regression and for graphical models.

We consider Bayesian model selection in generalized linear models that are high-dimensional, with the number of covariates p being large relative to the sample size n, but sparse in that the number of active covariates is small compared to p. Treating the covariates as random and adopting an asymptotic scenario in which p increases with n, we show that Bayesian model selection using certain priors on the set of models is asymptotically equivalent to selecting a model using an extended Bayesian information criterion. Moreover, we prove that the smallest true model is selected by either of these methods with probability tending to one. Having addressed random covariates, we are also able to give a consistency result for pseudo-likelihood approaches to high-dimensional sparse graphical modeling. Experiments on real data demonstrate good performance of the extended Bayesian information criterion for regression and for graphical models.

This summarizes some of the recent work on the errors-in-variables problem in generalized linear models. The focus is on covariance analysis, and in particular testing for and estimation of treatment effects. There is a considerable difference between the randomized and nonrandomized models when testing for an effect. For estimation, one is largely reduced to using an errors in variables analysis. Some of the possible methods are outlined and compared. Keywords: Simple regression models.

This document proposes a class of bounded influence robust regression estimators with conditionally unbiased estimating functions given the design. Optimal estimators are found within this class. Applications are made to generalized linear models. An example applying logistic regression to food stamp data is discussed. Keywords: Asymptotic bias; Generalized linear models; Linear regression.

This document proposes a class of bounded influence robust regression estimators with conditionally unbiased estimating functions given the design. Optimal estimators are found within this class. Applications are made to generalized linear models. An example applying logistic regression to food stamp data is discussed. Keywords: Asymptotic bias; Generalized linear models; Linear regression.

Timely identification of diseases, particularly heart attacks is crucial for individuals, particularly the elderly, to accurately anticipate the onset of the disease based on symtoms. The objective of this study is to develop a highly accurate model for early detection of heart disease using the Naïve Bayes (NB) and generalized linear model (GLM) techniques. In addition, another concern is the model’s subfar accuracy levels, promting the implementation of measures to optimize it. The suggested approach fot optimization involves the utilization of a genetic algorithm (GA). The research findings indicate that the NB and GLM approaches achive a reasonably high level of accuracy. Specifically, the NB model achieves an accuracy of 82.53%, while the GLM achieves an accuracy of 84.50%. Following optimization, the accuracy levels notably improved, with the NB_M-GA model reaching 85.83% and the GLM_M-GA model achieving 86,48%.

Machine learning techniques offer a precious tool box for use within astronomy to solve problems involving so-called big data. They provide a means to make accurate predictions about a particular system without prior knowledge of the underlying physical processes of the data. In this article, and the companion papers of this series, we present the set of Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) as a fast alternative method for tackling general astronomical problems, including the ones related to the machine learning paradigm. To demonstrate the applicability of GLMs to inherently positive and continuous physical observables, we explore their use in estimating the photometric redshifts of galaxies from their multi-wavelength photometry. Using the gamma family with a log link function we predict redshifts from the PHoto-z Accuracy Testing simulated catalogue and a subset of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey from Data Release 10. We obtain fits that result in catastrophic outlier rates as low as ~1% for simulated and ~2% for real data. Moreover, we can easily obtain such levels of precision within a matter of seconds on a normal desktop computer and with training sets that contain merely thousands of galaxies. Our software is made publicly available as an user-friendly package developed in Python, R and via an interactive web application (https://cosmostatisticsinitiative.shinyapps.io/CosmoPhotoz). This software allows users to apply a set of GLMs to their own photometric catalogues and generates publication quality plots with minimum effort from the user. By facilitating their ease of use to the astronomical community, this paper series aims to make GLMs widely known and to encourage their implementation in future large-scale projects, such as the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope.

We consider model selection in generalized linear models (GLM) for high-dimensional data and propose a wide class of model selection criteria based on penalized maximum likelihood with a complexity penalty on the model size. We derive a general nonasymptotic upper bound for the expected Kullback-Leibler divergence between the true distribution of the data and that generated by a selected model, and establish the corresponding minimax lower bounds for sparse GLM. For the properly chosen (nonlinear) penalty, the resulting penalized maximum likelihood estimator is shown to be asymptotically minimax and adaptive to the unknown sparsity. We discuss also possible extensions of the proposed approach to model selection in GLM under additional structural constraints and aggregation.

We consider the problem of learning mixtures of generalized linear models (GLM) which arise in classification and regression problems. Typical learning approaches such as expectation maximization (EM) or variational Bayes can get stuck in spurious local optima. In contrast, we present a tensor decomposition method which is guaranteed to correctly recover the parameters. The key insight is to employ certain feature transformations of the input, which depend on the input generative model. Specifically, we employ score function tensors of the input and compute their cross-correlation with the response variable. We establish that the decomposition of this tensor consistently recovers the parameters, under mild non-degeneracy conditions. We demonstrate that the computational and sample complexity of our method is a low order polynomial of the input and the latent dimensions.

The selection of optimal designs for generalized linear mixed models is complicated by the fact that the Fisher information matrix, on which most optimality criteria depend, is computationally expensive to evaluate. Our focus is on the design of experiments for likelihood estimation of parameters in the conditional model. We provide two novel approximations that substantially reduce the computational cost of evaluating the information matrix by complete enumeration of response outcomes, or Monte Carlo approximations thereof: (i) an asymptotic approximation which is accurate when there is strong dependence between observations in the same block; (ii) an approximation via Kriging interpolators. For logistic random intercept models, we show how interpolation can be especially effective for finding pseudo-Bayesian designs that incorporate uncertainty in the values of the model parameters. The new results are used to provide the first evaluation of the efficiency, for estimating conditional models, of optimal designs from closed-form approximations to the information matrix derived from marginal models. It is found that correcting for the marginal attenuation of parameters in binary-response models yields much improved designs, typically with very high efficiencies. However, in some experiments exhibiting strong dependence, designs for marginal models may still be inefficient for conditional modelling. Our asymptotic results provide some theoretical insights into why such inefficiencies occur.

An important feature of linear mixed models and generalized linear mixed models is that the conditional mean of the response given the random effects, after transformed by a link function, is linearly related to the fixed covariate effects and random effects. Therefore, it is of practical importance to test the adequacy of this assumption, particularly the assumption of linear covariate effects. In this paper, we review procedures that can be used for testing polynomial covariate effects in these popular models. Specifically, four types of hypothesis testing approaches are reviewed, i.e. R tests, likelihood ratio tests, score tests and residual-based tests. Derivation and performance of each testing procedure will be discussed, including a small simulation study for comparing the likelihood ratio tests with the score tests.

We study a high-dimensional generalized linear model and penalized empirical risk minimization with $\ell_1$ penalty. Our aim is to provide a non-trivial illustration that non-asymptotic bounds for the estimator can be obtained without relying on the chaining technique and/or the peeling device.

In this paper, we propose a parameter space augmentation approach that is based on "intentionally" introducing a pseudo-nuisance parameter into generalized linear models for the purpose of variance reduction. We first consider the parameter whose norm is equal to one. By introducing a pseudo-nuisance parameter into models to be estimated, an extra estimation is asymptotically normal and is, more importantly, non-positively correlated to the estimation that asymptotically achieves the Fisher/quasi Fisher information. As such, the resulting estimation is asymptotically with smaller variance-covariance matrices than the Fisher/quasi Fisher information. For general cases where the norm of the parameter is not necessarily equal to one, two-stage quasi-likelihood procedures separately estimating the scalar and direction of the parameter are proposed. The traces of the limiting variance-covariance matrices are in general smaller than or equal to that of the Fisher/quasi-Fisher information. We also discuss the pros and cons of the new methodology, and possible extensions. As this methodology of parameter space augmentation is general, and then may be readily extended to handle, say, cluster data and correlated data, and other models.

In this paper, we propose a parameter space augmentation approach that is based on "intentionally" introducing a pseudo-nuisance parameter into generalized linear models for the purpose of variance reduction. We first consider the parameter whose norm is equal to one. By introducing a pseudo-nuisance parameter into models to be estimated, an extra estimation is asymptotically normal and is, more importantly, non-positively correlated to the estimation that asymptotically achieves the Fisher/quasi Fisher information. As such, the resulting estimation is asymptotically with smaller variance-covariance matrices than the Fisher/quasi Fisher information. For general cases where the norm of the parameter is not necessarily equal to one, two-stage quasi-likelihood procedures separately estimating the scalar and direction of the parameter are proposed. The traces of the limiting variance-covariance matrices are in general smaller than or equal to that of the Fisher/quasi-Fisher information. We also discuss the pros and cons of the new methodology, and possible extensions. As this methodology of parameter space augmentation is general, and then may be readily extended to handle, say, cluster data and correlated data, and other models.

Regression models for categorical data are specified in heterogeneous ways. We propose to unify the specification of such models. This allows us to define the family of reference models for nominal data. We introduce the notion of reversible models for ordinal data that distinguishes adjacent and cumulative models from sequential ones. The combination of the proposed specification with the definition of reference and reversible models and various invariance properties leads to a new view of regression models for categorical data.

Here we propose an algorithm, named generalized orthogonal components regression (GOCRE), to explore the relationship between a categorical outcome and a set of massive variables. A set of orthogonal components are sequentially constructed to account for the variation of the categorical outcome, and together build up a generalized linear model (GLM). This algorithm can be considered as an extension of the partial least squares (PLS) for GLMs, but overcomes several issues of existing extensions based on iteratively reweighted least squares (IRLS). First, existing extensions construct a different set of components at each iteration and thus cannot provide a convergent set of components. Second, existing extensions are computationally intensive because of repetitively constructing a full set of components. Third, although they pursue the convergence of regression coefficients, the resultant regression coefficients may still diverge especially when building logistic regression models. GOCRE instead sequentially builds up each orthogonal component upon convergent construction, and simultaneously regresses against these orthogonal components to fit the GLM. The performance of the new method is demonstrated by both simulation studies and a real data example.

Finite mixture distributions arise in sampling a heterogeneous population. Data drawn from such a population will exhibit extra variability relative to any single subpopulation. Statistical models based on finite mixtures can assist in the analysis of categorical and count outcomes when standard generalized linear models (GLMs) cannot adequately account for variability observed in the data. We propose an extension of GLM where the response is assumed to follow a finite mixture distribution, while the regression of interest is linked to the mixture's mean. This approach may be preferred over a finite mixture of regressions when the population mean is the quantity of interest; here, only a single regression function must be specified and interpreted in the analysis. A technical challenge is that the mean of a finite mixture is a composite parameter which does not appear explicitly in the density. The proposed model is completely likelihood-based and maintains the link to the regression through a certain random effects structure. We consider typical GLM cases where means are either real-valued, constrained to be positive, or constrained to be on the unit interval. The resulting model is applied to two example datasets through a Bayesian analysis: one with success/failure outcomes and one with count outcomes. Supporting the extra variation is seen to improve residual plots and to appropriately widen prediction intervals.

This article discusses D-optimal Bayesian crossover designs for generalized linear models. Crossover trials with t treatments and p periods, for $t

Generalized linear models have become a standard class of models for data analysts. However in some applications, heterogeneity in samples is too great to be explained by the simple variance function implicit in such models. Utilizing a two-parameter exponential family which is overdispersed relative to a specified one parameter exponential family enables the creation of classes of overdispersed generalized linear models (OGLM's) which are analytically attractive. We propose fitting such models within a Bayesian framework employing noninformative priors in order to let the data drive the inference. Hence our analysis approximates likelihood-based inference but with possibly more reliable estimates of variability for small sample sizes. Bayesian calculations are carried out using a Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampling algorithm. An illustrative example using a data set involving, damage incidents to cargo ships is presented. Details of the data analysis are provided including comparison with the standard generalized linear models analysis. Several diagnostic tools reveal the improved performance of the OGLM

In practice, it is not possible to observe a whole max-stable random field. Therefore, a way how to reconstruct a max-stable random field in $C\left([0,1]^k\right)$ by interpolating its realizations at finitely many points is proposed. The resulting interpolating process is again a max-stable random field. This approach uses a \emph{generalized max-linear model}. Promising results have been established in the case $k=1$ in a previous paper. However, the extension to higher dimensions is not straightforward since we lose the natural order of the index space.

Highly robust and efficient estimators for the generalized linear model with a dispersion parameter are proposed. The estimators are based on three steps. In the first step the maximum rank correlation estimator is used to consistently estimate the slopes up to a scale factor. In the second step, the scale factor, the intercept, and the dispersion parameter are consistently estimated using a MT-estimator of a simple regression model. The combined estimator is highly robust but inefficient. Then, randomized quantile residuals based on the initial estimators are used to detect outliers to be rejected and to define a set S of observations to be retained. Finally, a conditional maximum likelihood (CML) estimator given the observations in S is computed. We show that, under the model, S tends to the complete sample for increasing sample size. Therefore, the CML tends to the unconditional maximum likelihood estimator. It is therefore highly efficient, while maintaining the high degree of robustness of the initial estimator. The case of the negative binomial regression model is studied in detail.

This article describes a full Bayesian treatment for simultaneous fixed-effect selection and parameter estimation in high-dimensional generalized linear mixed models. The approach consists of using a Bayesian adaptive Lasso penalty for signal-level adaptive shrinkage and a fast Variational Bayes scheme for estimating the posterior mode of the coefficients. The proposed approach offers several advantages over the existing methods, for example, the adaptive shrinkage parameters are automatically incorporated, no Laplace approximation step is required to integrate out the random effects. The performance of our approach is illustrated on several simulated and real data examples. The algorithm is implemented in the R package glmmvb and is made available online.

For regularized estimation, the upper tail behavior of the random Lipschitz coefficient associated with empirical loss functions is known to play an important role in the error bound of Lasso for high dimensional generalized linear models. The upper tail behavior is known for linear models but much less so for nonlinear models. We establish exponential type inequalities for the upper tail of the coefficient and illustrate an application of the results to Lasso likelihood estimation for high dimensional generalized linear models.

We propose an L1-penalized algorithm for fitting high-dimensional generalized linear mixed models. Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) can be viewed as an extension of generalized linear models for clustered observations. This Lasso-type approach for GLMMs should be mainly used as variable screening method to reduce the number of variables below the sample size. We then suggest a refitting by maximum likelihood based on the selected variables only. This is an effective correction to overcome problems stemming from the variable screening procedure which are more severe with GLMMs. We illustrate the performance of our algorithm on simulated as well as on real data examples. Supplemental materials are available online and the algorithm is implemented in the R package glmmixedlasso.

In this paper, the third in a series illustrating the power of generalized linear models (GLMs) for the astronomical community, we elucidate the potential of the class of GLMs which handles count data. The size of a galaxy's globular cluster population $N_{\rm GC}$ is a prolonged puzzle in the astronomical literature. It falls in the category of count data analysis, yet it is usually modelled as if it were a continuous response variable. We have developed a Bayesian negative binomial regression model to study the connection between $N_{\rm GC}$ and the following galaxy properties: central black hole mass, dynamical bulge mass, bulge velocity dispersion, and absolute visual magnitude. The methodology introduced herein naturally accounts for heteroscedasticity, intrinsic scatter, errors in measurements in both axes (either discrete or continuous), and allows modelling the population of globular clusters on their natural scale as a non-negative integer variable. Prediction intervals of 99% around the trend for expected $N_{\rm GC}$comfortably envelope the data, notably including the Milky Way, which has hitherto been considered a problematic outlier. Finally, we demonstrate how random intercept models can incorporate information of each particular galaxy morphological type. Bayesian variable selection methodology allows for automatically identifying galaxy types with different productions of GCs, suggesting that on average S0 galaxies have a GC population 35% smaller than other types with similar brightness.

Generalized Linear Models (GLMs), where a random vector $\mathbf{x}$ is observed through a noisy, possibly nonlinear, function of a linear transform $\mathbf{z}=\mathbf{Ax}$ arise in a range of applications in nonlinear filtering and regression. Approximate Message Passing (AMP) methods, based on loopy belief propagation, are a promising class of approaches for approximate inference in these models. AMP methods are computationally simple, general, and admit precise analyses with testable conditions for optimality for large i.i.d. transforms $\mathbf{A}$. However, the algorithms can easily diverge for general $\mathbf{A}$. This paper presents a convergent approach to the generalized AMP (GAMP) algorithm based on direct minimization of a large-system limit approximation of the Bethe Free Energy (LSL-BFE). The proposed method uses a double-loop procedure, where the outer loop successively linearizes the LSL-BFE and the inner loop minimizes the linearized LSL-BFE using the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM). The proposed method, called ADMM-GAMP, is similar in structure to the original GAMP method, but with an additional least-squares minimization. It is shown that for strictly convex, smooth penalties, ADMM-GAMP is guaranteed to converge to a local minima of the LSL-BFE, thus providing a convergent alternative to GAMP that is stable under arbitrary transforms. Simulations are also presented that demonstrate the robustness of the method for non-convex penalties as well.

This paper reviews the design of experiments for generalised linear models, including optimal design, Bayesian design and designs for models with random effects.

I present here a simple proof that, under general regularity conditions, the standard parametrization of generalized linear mixed model is identifiable. The proof is based on the assumptions of generalized linear mixed models on the first and second order moments and some general mild regularity conditions, and, therefore, is extensible to quasi-likelihood based generalized linear models. In particular, binomial and Poisson mixed models with dispersion parameter are identifiable when equipped with the standard parametrization.

Revealing hidden patterns in astronomical data is often the path to fundamental scientific breakthroughs; meanwhile the complexity of scientific inquiry increases as more subtle relationships are sought. Contemporary data analysis problems often elude the capabilities of classical statistical techniques, suggesting the use of cutting edge statistical methods. In this light, astronomers have overlooked a whole family of statistical techniques for exploratory data analysis and robust regression, the so-called Generalized Linear Models (GLMs). In this paper -- the first in a series aimed at illustrating the power of these methods in astronomical applications -- we elucidate the potential of a particular class of GLMs for handling binary/binomial data, the so-called logit and probit regression techniques, from both a maximum likelihood and a Bayesian perspective. As a case in point, we present the use of these GLMs to explore the conditions of star formation activity and metal enrichment in primordial minihaloes from cosmological hydro-simulations including detailed chemistry, gas physics, and stellar feedback. We predict that for a dark mini-halo with metallicity $\approx 1.3 \times 10^{-4} Z_{\bigodot}$, an increase of $1.2 \times 10^{-2}$ in the gas molecular fraction, increases the probability of star formation occurrence by a factor of 75%. Finally, we highlight the use of receiver operating characteristic curves as a diagnostic for binary classifiers, and ultimately we use these to demonstrate the competitive predictive performance of GLMs against the popular technique of artificial neural networks.