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Crustal Evolution Education Project (CEEP) modules were designed to: (1) provide students with the methods and results of continuing investigations into the composition, history, and processes of the earth's crust and the application of this knowledge to man's activities and (2) to be used by teachers with little or no previous background in the modern theories of sea-floor spreading, continental drift, and plate tectonics. Each module consists of two booklets: a teacher's guide and student investigation. The teacher's guide contains all of the information present in the student investigation booklet as well as: (1) a general introduction; (2) prerequisite student background; (3) objectives; (4) list of required materials; (5) background information; (6) suggested approach; (7) procedure, including number of 45-minute class periods required; (8) summary questions (with answers); (9) extension activities; and (10) list of references. Objectives of activities in this module include locating and relating plate boundaries and areas having frequent earthquakes, explaining how to use historical seismic data to predict earthquakes in an area, listing three precursors (events occurring before an earthquake) and explaining how they are used in earthquake prediction, and making an earthquake prediction based on simulated data. (Author/JN)

Crustal Evolution Education Project (CEEP) modules were designed to: (1) provide students with the methods and results of continuing investigations into the composition, history, and processes of the earth's crust and the application of this knowledge to man's activities and (2) to be used by teachers with little or no previous background in the modern theories of sea-floor spreading, continental drift, and plate tectonics. Each module consists of two booklets: a teacher's guide and student investigation. The teacher's guide contains all of the information present in the student investigation booklet as well as: (1) a general introduction; (2) prerequisite student background; (3) objectives; (4) list of required materials; (5) background information; (6) suggested approach; (7) procedure, including number of 45-minute class periods required; (8) summary questions (with answers); (9) extension activities; and (10) list of references. Objectives of activities in this module include locating and relating plate boundaries and areas having frequent earthquakes, explaining how to use historical seismic data to predict earthquakes in an area, listing three precursors (events occurring before an earthquake) and explaining how they are used in earthquake prediction, and making an earthquake prediction based on simulated data. (Author/JN)

Crustal Evolution Education Project (CEEP) modules were designed to: (1) provide students with the methods and results of continuing investigations into the composition, history, and processes of the earth's crust and the application of this knowledge to man's activities and (2) to be used by teachers with little or no previous background in the modern theories of sea-floor spreading, continental drift, and plate tectonics. Each module consists of two booklets: a teacher's guide and student investigation. The teacher's guide contains all of the information present in the student investigation booklet as well as: (1) a general introduction; (2) prerequisite student background; (3) objectives; (4) list of required materials; (5) background information; (6) suggested approach; (7) procedure, including number of 45-minute class periods required; (8) summary questions (with answers); (9) extension activities; and (10) list of references. Objectives of activities in this module include locating and relating plate boundaries and areas having frequent earthquakes, explaining how to use historical seismic data to predict earthquakes in an area, listing three precursors (events occurring before an earthquake) and explaining how they are used in earthquake prediction, and making an earthquake prediction based on simulated data. (Author/JN)

,Approved r Release X0/09/06: CIA-RDP79-00798AO 00090007-1 CABLE SEC DISSEM BYf_PER_ TOTAL COPIES " - RUN BY --2~ ~ AD MIN INTERNAL SE ONLY REPRODUCTION BY OTHER TH ISSUING OFFICE IS PROHIBIT] . STATE MESSAGE 92 A T 416495 EIA139 AGE 01-01 STATSPEC TOR 1 1410592 SE R 1323062 SEP 74 FM SECSTATE WASHDC TO AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 5811 BT UNCLAS STATE 202370 E,0.116521NA TAGSI SENV US UR STATINTL SUBJECT:a1~s-USSR ENVIRONMENTAL AGREE ~nlr. EARTHOUaK -PREDICTION FOLLOWING IS TEXT O F SEPTEMBER 5 COMMERCIAL CABLE SENT By US PROJECT CHAIRMAN ROBERT WALLACE TO ACADEMICIAN M.A. SADOVSKY, INSTITUTE OF EARTH PHYSICS, ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE USSR, IF2 AN USSR, B. GRURINSKAYA UL., 10, MOSCOW D^242, QUOTEI OR, NERSESOV INFORMED ME THAT DRS. NICOLAEV, 57?49116, OPTIKAEV AND NEGMATULAEV PLAN T R O A RIVE NEW YORK SEPTEMBER 29 FOR A STAY OF TWO MONTHS. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE HAS RECEIVED APPLICATION FOR VISAS FOR ARRIVAL SEPTEMBER 22 FOR THESE FOUR, THE USA WORKING GROUP WILL BE HAPPY TO RECEIVE THESE SOVIET COLLEAGUES. DR, PRESS WILL HOST NIKOLAEV AND DUBROVSKY AT MIT AND DR. BRESLER WILL HOST OPTIKAEV AND NEGMATULAEV AT UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, ?34(3)36, PLEASE ADVISE WHAT PROGRAM IS DESIRED FLIGHT NUMBER, DATE AND TIME OF ARRIVAL. END QUOTE. 188.63.4 State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file we Approved For Release 2006W66 ~N5I*I PV9F3 7IWA001000090007-1

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Approved For Release 2000/09/06 : CIA-RDP79-00798A001000100009-7 64 PAGE 01 STATE 264922 64 DR!G!N 64O- Z UNCLA:i SIB f' 1457 NSr~I G t rr INFO 0C ,"- R CUR -- 12 160-00 C I AEA - 0,:a r IE' NS..-00 R10A-07 CU-04 OES-Ob DODE.za7li0 / 32 R DRAFTED BY SCA/VO EJHARRIS%JD APPROVED +JY SCA/VO W,9 HALL P;, ItP/SOia[ Vt,.fLE i:RDA i-'U~C A~, FBI9NSA2OLSOIijs9(;UD P 0620462 DEC 75 ('M , CS':`A`"E WA: HD", TO ANEML&SSY I"iOSCt?, W PRLUPI i w UNCL,AS SI'A7E,' 28,4922 VISAS F~0 TAf;S d CVI V UP u $ENV (KUPNTC 4 V V YLUF! Y F P ET AL) SUBJICT4 3P oEX ENVIRONMENTAL AGREEMENT,,' EARTH UWx PRE-DICTION; WORMING- GROUP IX-1, 1, VT"aAS FOUR KOPNIC ?EV THRU NI ,,ULAYe:V [2-,B) w 'TOTAL Ei ALLENS 2, ENTR'? At;T ORI -:O AT NYC/DC r;! 4I li %.C 75"JAN 76 FOR STAY (3:^ MONTHS, ROBINSON State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2000/09/06 : CIA-RDP79-00798AO01000100009-7

In this paper, we describe a mathematical-statistical model for the study and the earthquake prediction. We obtain also various mathematical connections with DN Constant, Ramanujan Recurring Numbers and some parameters of Number Theory and String Theory

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amandio c epicenter earthquake prediction equipments are toys

amandio c epicenter earthquake prediction equipments are toys

Document number CIA-RDP79-00798A001000100006-0 declassified and released through the CIA's CREST database. Previously available only on four computers located outside of Washington D.C., the Agency was successfully pressured into putting the files online as a result of a MuckRock lawsuit and the efforts of Emma Best. The metadata was collected by Data.World, and the files are now being archived and made text searchable by the Internet Archive.

Document number CIA-RDP79-00798A001000100007-9 declassified and released through the CIA's CREST database. Previously available only on four computers located outside of Washington D.C., the Agency was successfully pressured into putting the files online as a result of a MuckRock lawsuit and the efforts of Emma Best. The metadata was collected by Data.World, and the files are now being archived and made text searchable by the Internet Archive.

After every earthquake, there's always someone who claims to have predicted it. Is earthquake prediction possible?

After every earthquake, there's always someone who claims to have predicted it. Is earthquake prediction possible?

A theoretical analysis of the earthquake prediction problem in space-time is presented. We find an explicit structure of the optimal strategy and its relation to the generalized error diagram. This study is a generalization of the theoretical results for time prediction. The possibility and simplicity of this extension is due to the choice of the class of goal functions. We also discuss issues in forecasting versus prediction, scaling laws versus predictability, and measure of prediction efficiency at the research stage.

A theoretical analysis of the earthquake prediction problem in space-time is presented. We find an explicit structure of the optimal strategy and its relation to the generalized error diagram. This study is a generalization of the theoretical results for time prediction. The possibility and simplicity of this extension is due to the choice of the class of goal functions. We also discuss issues in forecasting versus prediction, scaling laws versus predictability, and measure of prediction efficiency at the research stage.

A theoretical analysis of the earthquake prediction problem in space-time is presented. We find an explicit structure of the optimal strategy and its relation to the generalized error diagram. This study is a generalization of the theoretical results for time prediction. The possibility and simplicity of this extension is due to the choice of the class of goal functions. We also discuss issues in forecasting versus prediction, scaling laws versus predictability, and measure of prediction efficiency at the research stage.

A theoretical analysis of the earthquake prediction problem in space-time is presented. We find an explicit structure of the optimal strategy and its relation to the generalized error diagram. This study is a generalization of the theoretical results for time prediction. The possibility and simplicity of this extension is due to the choice of the class of goal functions. We also discuss issues in forecasting versus prediction, scaling laws versus predictability, and measure of prediction efficiency at the research stage.

A theoretical analysis of the earthquake prediction problem in space-time is presented. We find an explicit structure of the optimal strategy and its relation to the generalized error diagram. This study is a generalization of the theoretical results for time prediction. The possibility and simplicity of this extension is due to the choice of the class of goal functions. We also discuss issues in forecasting versus prediction, scaling laws versus predictability, and measure of prediction efficiency at the research stage.

During the past year, the grant supported research on several aspects of crustal deformation. The relation between earthquake displacements and fault dimensions was studied in an effort to find scaling laws that relate static parameters such as slip and stress drop to the dimensions of the rupture. Several implications of the static relations for the dynamic properties of earthquakes such as rupture velocity and dynamic stress drop were proposed. A theoretical basis for earthquake related phenomena associated with slow rupture growth or propagation, such as delayed multiple events, was developed using the stress intensity factor defined in fracture mechanics and experimental evidence from studies of crack growth by stress corrosion. Finally, extensive studies by Japanese geologists have established the offset across numerous faults in Japan over the last one hundred thousand years. These observations of intraplate faulting are being used to establish the spatial variations of the average strain rate of subregions in southern Japan.

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The Satellite Telemetry Earthquake Monitoring Program was started to evaluate the applicability of satellite relay telemetry in the collection of seismic data from a large number of dense seismograph clusters laid out along the major fault systems of western North America. Prototype clusters utilizing phone-line telemetry were then being installed by the National Center for Earthquake Research in 3 regions along the San Andreas fault in central California; and the experience of installing and operating the clusters and in reducing and analyzing the seismic data from them was to provide the raw materials for evaluation in the satellite relay telemetry project. The principal advantages of the satellite relay system over commercial telephone or microwave systems were: (1) it could be made less prone to massive failure during a major earthquake; (2) it could be extended readily into undeveloped regions; and (3) it could provide flexible, uniform communications over large sections of major global tectonic zones. Fundamental characteristics of a communications system to cope with the large volume of raw data collected by a short-period seismograph network are discussed.

This study deals with addressing the scientific achievements and the history of earthquake prediction in Iraq, in addition to attempting to discuss the possibility of machine learning to predict earthquakes from a theoretical perspective. The idea of predicting earthquakes gives at least a little time to protect people and reduce earthquake damage. In Iraq, we notice an increase in the occurrence of earthquakes, especially in the southern regions, where they form a strange phenomenon because they are plain areas and far from the seismic fault line, due to the errors that accompany excessive oil extraction and in random and unstudied ways, and geological studies raise fears in predicting an increase in earthquakes for the coming years. We have explored the possibility of applying machine learning technology to predict earthquakes in Iraq, and follow-up recording of tremors at different stations in Iraq through three centers of seismic sensor networks. In addition to the earthquake catalog in Iraq (1900-2019). This study may pave the way for more research to develop an integrated and accurate earthquake prediction system using machine-learning technologies.

Earthquakes are one of the most dangerous natural disasters facing humans because of their occurrence without warning and their impact on their lives and property. In addition, predicting seismic movement is one of the main research topics in seismic disaster prevention. In geological studies, scientists can predict and know the locations of earthquakes in the long term. Therefore, about 80% of the major global earthquakes lie along the Pacific Ring belt, known as the Ring of Fire. Machine learning methods have also been used for short-term earthquake prediction, and studies have applied the random forest method to determine the factors that precede earthquakes. The machine learning method was based on various decision trees, each of which predicted the time to the nearest oscillation. The third group of scientists used the hybrid prediction method, which combines machine learning and geological studies. This research deals with a review of most of the geological studies and machine learning techniques applied to earthquake data sets, which showed a total lack of prediction of potential earthquakes through one approach, so studies designed by geologists were combined with machine learning.

Many people believe animals have the ability to predict earthquakes. The facts tell a different story.

Earthquake research has not yielded promising results, either in the form of causes or revealing the timing of their future events. Many methods have been developed, one of which is related to data mining, such as the use of hybrid neural networks, support vector regressor, fuzzy modeling, clustering, and others. Earthquake research has uncertain parameters and to obtain optimal results an appropriate method is needed. In general, several predictive data mining methods are grouped into two categories, namely parametric and non-parametric. This study uses a non-parametric method with multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) and conic multivariate adaptive regression spline (CMARS) as the backward stage of the MARS algorithm. The results of this study after parameter testing and analysis obtained a mathematical model with 16 basis functions (BF) and 12 basis functions contributing to the model and 4 basis functions not contributing to the model. Based on the level of variable contribution, it can be written that the epicenter distance is 100 percent, the magnitude is 31.1 percent, the location temperature is 5.5 percent, and the depth is 3.5 percent. It can be concluded that the results of the prediction analysis of areas in Lombok with the highest earthquake hazard level are Malaka, Genggelang, Pemenang, Tanjung, Tegal Maja, Senggigi, Mangsit. Meninting, and Malimbu.

Earthquake research has not yielded promising results, either in the form of causes or revealing the timing of their future events. Many methods have been developed, one of which is related to data mining, such as the use of hybrid neural networks, support vector regressor, fuzzy modeling, clustering, and others. Earthquake research has uncertain parameters and to obtain optimal results an appropriate method is needed. In general, several predictive data mining methods are grouped into two categories, namely parametric and non-parametric. This study uses a non-parametric method with multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) and conic multivariate adaptive regression spline (CMARS) as the backward stage of the MARS algorithm. The results of this study after parameter testing and analysis obtained a mathematical model with 16 basis functions (BF) and 12 basis functions contributing to the model and 4 basis functions not contributing to the model. Based on the level of variable contribution, it can be written that the epicenter distance is 100 percent, the magnitude is 31.1 percent, the location temperature is 5.5 percent, and the depth is 3.5 percent. It can be concluded that the results of the prediction analysis of areas in Lombok with the highest earthquake hazard level are Malaka, Genggelang, Pemenang, Tanjung, Tegal Maja, Senggigi, Mangsit. Meninting, and Malimbu.

This article is from Scientific Reports , volume 4 . Abstract Neurobiological markers of stress symptom progression for healthy survivors from a disaster (e.g., an earthquake) would greatly help with early intervention to prevent the development of stress-related disorders. However, the relationship between the neurobiological alterations and the symptom progression over time is unclear. Here, we examined 44 healthy survivors of the Wenchuan earthquake in China in a longitudinal resting-state fMRI study to observe the alterations of brain functions related to depressive or anxiety symptom progression. Using multi-variate pattern analysis to the fMRI data, we successfully predicted the depressive or anxiety symptom severity for these survivors in short- (25 days) and long-term (2 years) and the symptom severity changes over time. Several brain areas (e.g., the frontolimbic and striatal areas) and the functional connectivities located within the fronto-striato-thalamic and default-mode networks were found to be correlated with the symptom progression and might play important roles in the adaptation to trauma.

In the challenging realm of earthquake prediction, the reliability of forecasting systems has remained a persistent obstacle. This study focuses on earthquake magnitude prediction in Indonesia, leveraging supervised machine learning techniques and cloud radon data. We present an analysis of the tele-monitoring system, data collection methods, and the application of regression-based machine learning algorithms. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset spanning 30 training instances and 105 test instances, the study evaluates multiple metrics to ascertain the efficacy of the prediction models. Our findings reveal that the linear regression approach yields the best earthquake magnitude prediction method, with the lowest values across multiple evaluation metrics: standard deviation 0.40, mean absolute error (MAE) 0.30, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) 6%, root mean square error (RMSE) 0.52, mean squared error (MSE) 0.28, symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE) 0.06, and conformal normalized mean absolute percentage error (cnSMAPE) 0.97. Additionally, we discuss the implications of the research results and the potential applications in enhancing existing earthquake prediction methodologies.

Document number CIA-RDP79-00798A001000090007-1 declassified and released through the CIA's CREST database. Previously available only on four computers located outside of Washington D.C., the Agency was successfully pressured into putting the files online as a result of a MuckRock lawsuit and the efforts of Emma Best. The metadata was collected by Data.World, and the files are now being archived and made text searchable by the Internet Archive.

September California Earthquake Prediction did not come to pass - John Hogue On Coast To Coast AM. Prepare for disasters with food storage. Protect your family and loved ones with the most important commodity during a calamity. http://foodinvestmentplan.com

7-71 MFG. 11 /73 Approved For Release 2000/09/06 : CIA-RDP79-00798AO01000090010-7 CABLE SEC DISSEM BY PER TOTAL COPIES ( RUN BY ADMIN INTERNAL USE ONLY ALJ_V_A_NCE_COPY ISSUED/SLOTTED BY )f5 I " ~ C ACTION -- -.__-_~ T 363722 E I A818 REPRODUCTION BY OTHER T ISSUING OFFICE IS PFlOHIBI' TOR:2313172 AUG 74 "Qt SC I RE-F: GAW_EY/TECH LETTER DATED AUGUST 19, 974 I., EMBASSY ISSUED VISA TO KEYLIS-BOROK ON AUGUST 16 FOR THRuE-MONTH VISIT TO U,S, ON SUBJECT PROJECT (MOSCOW 12186), HOWEVER, HYDROMET INFORMED EMBASSY AUGUST 23 THAT HE WILL NOW POSTPONE HIS VISIT FOR A MONT OR SIX WEEKS IN ORDER TO COMPLETE SOME WORK HERE AND WILL THEN JOIN SOVIET DELEGATION ALREADY IN THE U,S, (SEE BELOW), 2, THREE MAN SOVIET DELEGATION: MYACHKIN, SOBELEV, AND NERESOV WILL ARRIVE IN NEW YORK AUGUST 25 VIA AEROFLOT FROM MOSCOW, THEY REQUEST THAT THEY BE MET BY U,S, GEOLOGICAL SURVEY REP? SENTATIVE AND ASSISTED WITH THEIR ONWARD TRAVEL, GROUP DOES NOT HAVE TICKETS FOR U,S, INTERNAL AIR TRAVEL AS THESE ARE TO BE SUPPLIED BY U.S, HOSTS, SOTESSEL State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file TO SEC ST AT Er WA SHDC I MMED IATE 1876 .0 BT UNCLAS MOSCOW 12909. O, 11652: N/A FM AMErMSA:)S r MOSCOW 0 231300~ AUG 74 iAG3 3,; 954- (KEYLIS-BOROK, VLADIMIR) SUBJECTo ENVIRONMENTAL AGREEMENT; EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION KF. FILE STATE MESSAGE '0 Approved For Release 2000/ '/b8 :Idl `b 7? D-9,M001000090010-7

7-71 MFG. 11 /73 Approved For Release 2000/09/06 : CIA-RDP79-00798AO01000090010-7 CABLE SEC DISSEM BY PER TOTAL COPIES ( RUN BY ADMIN INTERNAL USE ONLY ALJ_V_A_NCE_COPY ISSUED/SLOTTED BY )f5 I " ~ C ACTION -- -.__-_~ T 363722 E I A818 REPRODUCTION BY OTHER T ISSUING OFFICE IS PFlOHIBI' TOR:2313172 AUG 74 "Qt SC I RE-F: GAW_EY/TECH LETTER DATED AUGUST 19, 974 I., EMBASSY ISSUED VISA TO KEYLIS-BOROK ON AUGUST 16 FOR THRuE-MONTH VISIT TO U,S, ON SUBJECT PROJECT (MOSCOW 12186), HOWEVER, HYDROMET INFORMED EMBASSY AUGUST 23 THAT HE WILL NOW POSTPONE HIS VISIT FOR A MONT OR SIX WEEKS IN ORDER TO COMPLETE SOME WORK HERE AND WILL THEN JOIN SOVIET DELEGATION ALREADY IN THE U,S, (SEE BELOW), 2, THREE MAN SOVIET DELEGATION: MYACHKIN, SOBELEV, AND NERESOV WILL ARRIVE IN NEW YORK AUGUST 25 VIA AEROFLOT FROM MOSCOW, THEY REQUEST THAT THEY BE MET BY U,S, GEOLOGICAL SURVEY REP? SENTATIVE AND ASSISTED WITH THEIR ONWARD TRAVEL, GROUP DOES NOT HAVE TICKETS FOR U,S, INTERNAL AIR TRAVEL AS THESE ARE TO BE SUPPLIED BY U.S, HOSTS, SOTESSEL State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file TO SEC ST AT Er WA SHDC I MMED IATE 1876 .0 BT UNCLAS MOSCOW 12909. O, 11652: N/A FM AMErMSA:)S r MOSCOW 0 231300~ AUG 74 iAG3 3,; 954- (KEYLIS-BOROK, VLADIMIR) SUBJECTo ENVIRONMENTAL AGREEMENT; EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION KF. FILE STATE MESSAGE '0 Approved For Release 2000/ '/b8 :Idl `b 7? D-9,M001000090010-7

7-71 MFG. 11 /73 Approved For Release 2000/09/06 : CIA-RDP79-00798AO01000090010-7 CABLE SEC DISSEM BY PER TOTAL COPIES ( RUN BY ADMIN INTERNAL USE ONLY ALJ_V_A_NCE_COPY ISSUED/SLOTTED BY )f5 I " ~ C ACTION -- -.__-_~ T 363722 E I A818 REPRODUCTION BY OTHER T ISSUING OFFICE IS PFlOHIBI' TOR:2313172 AUG 74 "Qt SC I RE-F: GAW_EY/TECH LETTER DATED AUGUST 19, 974 I., EMBASSY ISSUED VISA TO KEYLIS-BOROK ON AUGUST 16 FOR THRuE-MONTH VISIT TO U,S, ON SUBJECT PROJECT (MOSCOW 12186), HOWEVER, HYDROMET INFORMED EMBASSY AUGUST 23 THAT HE WILL NOW POSTPONE HIS VISIT FOR A MONT OR SIX WEEKS IN ORDER TO COMPLETE SOME WORK HERE AND WILL THEN JOIN SOVIET DELEGATION ALREADY IN THE U,S, (SEE BELOW), 2, THREE MAN SOVIET DELEGATION: MYACHKIN, SOBELEV, AND NERESOV WILL ARRIVE IN NEW YORK AUGUST 25 VIA AEROFLOT FROM MOSCOW, THEY REQUEST THAT THEY BE MET BY U,S, GEOLOGICAL SURVEY REP? SENTATIVE AND ASSISTED WITH THEIR ONWARD TRAVEL, GROUP DOES NOT HAVE TICKETS FOR U,S, INTERNAL AIR TRAVEL AS THESE ARE TO BE SUPPLIED BY U.S, HOSTS, SOTESSEL State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file TO SEC ST AT Er WA SHDC I MMED IATE 1876 .0 BT UNCLAS MOSCOW 12909. O, 11652: N/A FM AMErMSA:)S r MOSCOW 0 231300~ AUG 74 iAG3 3,; 954- (KEYLIS-BOROK, VLADIMIR) SUBJECTo ENVIRONMENTAL AGREEMENT; EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION KF. FILE STATE MESSAGE '0 Approved For Release 2000/ '/b8 :Idl `b 7? D-9,M001000090010-7

Research conducted for determining the location of stations for measuring crustal dynamics and predicting earthquakes is discussed. Procedural aspects, the extraregional kinematic tendencies, and regional tectonic deformation mechanisms are described.

Series : The Earnest C. Watson Caltech Lecture Series Description : The speaker is Dr. Frank Press, Director of the Caltech Seismological Laboratory from 1957 to 1965 and Professor of Geophysics at Caltech. Rights : Copyright status unknown. This work may be protected by the U.S. Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.C.). In addition, its reproduction may be restricted by terms of gift or purchase agreements, donor restrictions, privacy and publicity rights, licensing and trademarks. This work is accessible for purposes of education and research. Transmission or reproduction of works protected by copyright beyond that allowed by fair use requires the written permission of the copyright owners. Works not in the public domain cannot be commercially exploited without permission of the copyright owner. Responsibility for any use rests exclusively with the user. The Caltech Archives attempted to find rights owners without success but is eager to hear from them so that we may obtain permission, if needed. Upon request to [email protected], digitized works can be removed from public view if there are rights issues that need to be resolved. Digitized by the California Audiovisual Preservation Project (CAVPP) .

This paper explores the application of machine learning models, specifically XGBoost, Stacking Regressor, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), for predicting earthquake magnitudes in Düzce, Turkey. The models were trained and tested on seismic data to predict moment magnitude (Mw). The performance of each model was evaluated using Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and the coefficient of determination (R²). The results indicate that the XGBoost model outperforms the other models with a higher R² value and lower error metrics, providing a more accurate prediction of seismic events.

Modern optical atomic clocks along with the optical fiber technology currently being developed can measure the geoid, which is the equipotential surface that extends the mean sea level on continents, to a precision that competes with existing technology. In this proceeding, we point out that atomic clocks have the potential to not only map the sea level surface on continents, but also look at variations of the geoid as a function of time with unprecedented timing resolution. The local time series of the geoid has a plethora of applications. These include potential improvement in the predictions of earthquakes and volcanoes, and closer monitoring of ground uplift in areas where hydraulic fracturing is performed.

Earthquake prediction is one of the most challenging and vital tasks that demands new methodologies for improving the accuracy of predictions. The research aims to present how radon gas concentration fluctuations are associated with the prediction of earthquakes in the Eurasian-Indo-Australian Plates. The paper discusses a statistical method of forecasting earthquake magnitudes greater than M4.5 from real-time radon gas monitoring close to the Grindulu Fault, Pacitan, East Java, Indonesia. This developed model has had the least errors in the form of mean absolute error (MAE), 0.30; mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), 0.06; root mean square error (RMSE), 0.55; mean squared error (MSE), 0.30; symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), 0.06; complex normalized mean absolute percentage error (cnMAPE), 0.97; error absolute average (EAA), 0.30; and error relative average (ERA), -0.11, showing great accuracy and uniformity in prediction. These observations support the model’s efficiency that may be adopted in earthquake early warning systems for better disaster preparedness. Predictive errors are reduced, and there is support for improved disaster management strategy, public safety education, and effective emergency response personnel training. This study can be used as a foothold for further advances in earthquake prediction methodologies and refinement of early warning systems.

Microearthquake studies of the southern section of the San Andreas fault system were conducted in order to elucidate the role of known but little studied complications in the fault system which could affect the SAFE measurement. Data reduction from microearthquake studies in Baja California, Mexico, was completed. In addition, styles of deformation on the Alpine fault in New Zealand and on the San Andreas fault were compared. Sections of these faults with comparable physical characteristics seem to deform in a similar manner, indicating that deformation style is controlled by certain fundamental relations and will continue in the future. The geology of eastern New Guinea is also discussed. Deformation in the area is proposed to be related to collision of a series of island arcs with central New Guinea, which is part of the Australian continent. Among other unusual properties, eastern New Guinea contains the highest anomaly of the gravimetrically determined geoid based on GEM 6 and surface gravity data.

Microearthquake studies of the southern section of the San Andreas fault system were conducted in order to elucidate the role of known but little studied complications in the fault system which could affect the SAFE measurement. Data reduction from microearthquake studies in Baja California, Mexico, was completed. In addition, styles of deformation on the Alpine fault in New Zealand and on the San Andreas fault were compared. Sections of these faults with comparable physical characteristics seem to deform in a similar manner, indicating that deformation style is controlled by certain fundamental relations and will continue in the future. The geology of eastern New Guinea is also discussed. Deformation in the area is proposed to be related to collision of a series of island arcs with central New Guinea, which is part of the Australian continent. Among other unusual properties, eastern New Guinea contains the highest anomaly of the gravimetrically determined geoid based on GEM 6 and surface gravity data.

7.71 MFG. ?/Approved For ReleasemR000/09/06 : CIA-RDP79-00798 1000100007-9 tAt2 TOTAL COPIES ZS~ RUI Y / CABLE SEC DISSEM BY_y7 PERy/ /. // REPRO DUCT*ON SY OTHER THAN .'/ .rr.uua wrr.nr .n ii-minivan PERSON/UNIT NOTIFIED ApVANgg PYISSUED/SL OTTED FILE 4ACTION N UNIT N F # O ADMIN INTERNAL USE ON f Lc.~o, o ~Psfib T 493941 EIA826 PAGE 01 TOR1270827F. NOV 75 STATE MESSAGE NC 35758 R 261458E NOV 75 / FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW N /. TQ RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7178 RUEHFB/DIRECTOR FBI ~. V . 0 ST UNCLAS MOSCOW 17031 VISAS DONKEY CHIPMUNK E, O, 11652: N/A T.AGS:CVIS UR (APTIKAYEV, FELIKS FUADOVICH) SUBJECT: VISAS SPLEXII SOVIET DELEGATION VISITING UNDER ENVIRONMENTAL AGREEMENT, WORKING GROUP IX-1P EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION It APT IKAY.EV, FELIKS FUADOVIC H 11 OCT 1932 MOSCOW RE.SE.ARCHER, INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS OF EARTH, ACADEMY OF SCIENCES 2, MAKSIMOV, ALEKSANDR BOR ISOVICH 11 FEB 1941 MOSCOW RESEARCHER, INSTITUTE OF EARTH PHYSICS, ACADEMY OF SCIENCES 3, MOLCHAN, VIKTOR IOSIFOVICH JAN 1939 GOMEL' RESEARCH?ERP INSTITUTE OF EARTH PHYSICS, ACADEMY OF SCIENCES 4,' MYACHKIN, VIKTOR IOSIFOVICH 4 JULY 1930 SMGLENSK LAB CHIEF, INSTITUTE OF EARTH PHYSICS, ACADEMY OF SCIENCES 5, PISARENKO. VLADILEN FEDOROVICH. 12 MAY 1934 MOSCOW DEPARTMENT CHIEF, INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS OF EARTH OF USSR ACADEMY OF SCIENCES # DOCTOR PHYSICAL AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES, 6, SALOV, BORIS GEORG IYEV IC H 26 NOVEMBER 1938 POLYARNYY SENIOR ENGINEER, 'INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS OF EARTH OF USSR ACADEMY OF SCIENCES. 7, SOBOLEV, GENNADIY ALEKSANDROVICH 7.APRIL 1935 SMOLENSK PHYSICS OFEARTH OF LABORATORY CHIEF+ INSTITUTE PHYSICAL AND USSR ACADEMY OF SCI Ir MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES, 8, TRO ITSK IY, PETR ALEKSANDROVICH 21 APRIL 1946 LE.NI NGRAD r~F;(S~~ RT OF JUA o *08F 6a S1w ??'Nt'I"F: 0 Q01000100007-9 State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file /-/I U. 4/lb_ Approved For Release 2000/09/06 CIA-RDP79-00798A001000100007-9 ADMIN INTERNAL USE ONLY RF. FILE VR El A826 PAGE 02-02 TOR12708272 NOV 75 R[PRODUCTION ^Y OTHER THAN ISSUINQ ORRICK Is PRONIRITRD USSR ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, 9, VOYEVODA, OLEGDMITRIYEVICH 6 APRIL 1946 MOSCOW JUNIOR RESEARCHER. INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS OF EARTH OF USSR ACADEMY O F SCIENCES, 10, FOR JOINT RESEARCH IN FORECASTING EARTHQUAKES, CONTACT MR, BILL BROWN, EPA, EAST TOWER ROOM 10025, 401 M STREET S,W, WASHINGTON, D,C, 20516, TEL 426-2617 .11, ETD DECEMBER a p STAY 1 - 3 MONTHS, EMBASSY REQUESTS AUTHORISATION FOR ENTRY DECEMBER AND JANUARY STO ESSEL STATE MESSAGE NC 35758 Approved For Release 2000Rl16 ?ITI&~PP 001000100007-9 A~i ~1~L~~i.

7.71 MFG. ?/Approved For ReleasemR000/09/06 : CIA-RDP79-00798 1000100007-9 tAt2 TOTAL COPIES ZS~ RUI Y / CABLE SEC DISSEM BY_y7 PERy/ /. // REPRO DUCT*ON SY OTHER THAN .'/ .rr.uua wrr.nr .n ii-minivan PERSON/UNIT NOTIFIED ApVANgg PYISSUED/SL OTTED FILE 4ACTION N UNIT N F # O ADMIN INTERNAL USE ON f Lc.~o, o ~Psfib T 493941 EIA826 PAGE 01 TOR1270827F. NOV 75 STATE MESSAGE NC 35758 R 261458E NOV 75 / FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW N /. TQ RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7178 RUEHFB/DIRECTOR FBI ~. V . 0 ST UNCLAS MOSCOW 17031 VISAS DONKEY CHIPMUNK E, O, 11652: N/A T.AGS:CVIS UR (APTIKAYEV, FELIKS FUADOVICH) SUBJECT: VISAS SPLEXII SOVIET DELEGATION VISITING UNDER ENVIRONMENTAL AGREEMENT, WORKING GROUP IX-1P EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION It APT IKAY.EV, FELIKS FUADOVIC H 11 OCT 1932 MOSCOW RE.SE.ARCHER, INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS OF EARTH, ACADEMY OF SCIENCES 2, MAKSIMOV, ALEKSANDR BOR ISOVICH 11 FEB 1941 MOSCOW RESEARCHER, INSTITUTE OF EARTH PHYSICS, ACADEMY OF SCIENCES 3, MOLCHAN, VIKTOR IOSIFOVICH JAN 1939 GOMEL' RESEARCH?ERP INSTITUTE OF EARTH PHYSICS, ACADEMY OF SCIENCES 4,' MYACHKIN, VIKTOR IOSIFOVICH 4 JULY 1930 SMGLENSK LAB CHIEF, INSTITUTE OF EARTH PHYSICS, ACADEMY OF SCIENCES 5, PISARENKO. VLADILEN FEDOROVICH. 12 MAY 1934 MOSCOW DEPARTMENT CHIEF, INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS OF EARTH OF USSR ACADEMY OF SCIENCES # DOCTOR PHYSICAL AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES, 6, SALOV, BORIS GEORG IYEV IC H 26 NOVEMBER 1938 POLYARNYY SENIOR ENGINEER, 'INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS OF EARTH OF USSR ACADEMY OF SCIENCES. 7, SOBOLEV, GENNADIY ALEKSANDROVICH 7.APRIL 1935 SMOLENSK PHYSICS OFEARTH OF LABORATORY CHIEF+ INSTITUTE PHYSICAL AND USSR ACADEMY OF SCI Ir MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES, 8, TRO ITSK IY, PETR ALEKSANDROVICH 21 APRIL 1946 LE.NI NGRAD r~F;(S~~ RT OF JUA o *08F 6a S1w ??'Nt'I"F: 0 Q01000100007-9 State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file /-/I U. 4/lb_ Approved For Release 2000/09/06 CIA-RDP79-00798A001000100007-9 ADMIN INTERNAL USE ONLY RF. FILE VR El A826 PAGE 02-02 TOR12708272 NOV 75 R[PRODUCTION ^Y OTHER THAN ISSUINQ ORRICK Is PRONIRITRD USSR ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, 9, VOYEVODA, OLEGDMITRIYEVICH 6 APRIL 1946 MOSCOW JUNIOR RESEARCHER. INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS OF EARTH OF USSR ACADEMY O F SCIENCES, 10, FOR JOINT RESEARCH IN FORECASTING EARTHQUAKES, CONTACT MR, BILL BROWN, EPA, EAST TOWER ROOM 10025, 401 M STREET S,W, WASHINGTON, D,C, 20516, TEL 426-2617 .11, ETD DECEMBER a p STAY 1 - 3 MONTHS, EMBASSY REQUESTS AUTHORISATION FOR ENTRY DECEMBER AND JANUARY STO ESSEL STATE MESSAGE NC 35758 Approved For Release 2000Rl16 ?ITI&~PP 001000100007-9 A~i ~1~L~~i.

7.71 MFG. ?/Approved For ReleasemR000/09/06 : CIA-RDP79-00798 1000100007-9 tAt2 TOTAL COPIES ZS~ RUI Y / CABLE SEC DISSEM BY_y7 PERy/ /. // REPRO DUCT*ON SY OTHER THAN .'/ .rr.uua wrr.nr .n ii-minivan PERSON/UNIT NOTIFIED ApVANgg PYISSUED/SL OTTED FILE 4ACTION N UNIT N F # O ADMIN INTERNAL USE ON f Lc.~o, o ~Psfib T 493941 EIA826 PAGE 01 TOR1270827F. NOV 75 STATE MESSAGE NC 35758 R 261458E NOV 75 / FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW N /. TQ RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7178 RUEHFB/DIRECTOR FBI ~. V . 0 ST UNCLAS MOSCOW 17031 VISAS DONKEY CHIPMUNK E, O, 11652: N/A T.AGS:CVIS UR (APTIKAYEV, FELIKS FUADOVICH) SUBJECT: VISAS SPLEXII SOVIET DELEGATION VISITING UNDER ENVIRONMENTAL AGREEMENT, WORKING GROUP IX-1P EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION It APT IKAY.EV, FELIKS FUADOVIC H 11 OCT 1932 MOSCOW RE.SE.ARCHER, INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS OF EARTH, ACADEMY OF SCIENCES 2, MAKSIMOV, ALEKSANDR BOR ISOVICH 11 FEB 1941 MOSCOW RESEARCHER, INSTITUTE OF EARTH PHYSICS, ACADEMY OF SCIENCES 3, MOLCHAN, VIKTOR IOSIFOVICH JAN 1939 GOMEL' RESEARCH?ERP INSTITUTE OF EARTH PHYSICS, ACADEMY OF SCIENCES 4,' MYACHKIN, VIKTOR IOSIFOVICH 4 JULY 1930 SMGLENSK LAB CHIEF, INSTITUTE OF EARTH PHYSICS, ACADEMY OF SCIENCES 5, PISARENKO. VLADILEN FEDOROVICH. 12 MAY 1934 MOSCOW DEPARTMENT CHIEF, INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS OF EARTH OF USSR ACADEMY OF SCIENCES # DOCTOR PHYSICAL AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES, 6, SALOV, BORIS GEORG IYEV IC H 26 NOVEMBER 1938 POLYARNYY SENIOR ENGINEER, 'INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS OF EARTH OF USSR ACADEMY OF SCIENCES. 7, SOBOLEV, GENNADIY ALEKSANDROVICH 7.APRIL 1935 SMOLENSK PHYSICS OFEARTH OF LABORATORY CHIEF+ INSTITUTE PHYSICAL AND USSR ACADEMY OF SCI Ir MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES, 8, TRO ITSK IY, PETR ALEKSANDROVICH 21 APRIL 1946 LE.NI NGRAD r~F;(S~~ RT OF JUA o *08F 6a S1w ??'Nt'I"F: 0 Q01000100007-9 State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file /-/I U. 4/lb_ Approved For Release 2000/09/06 CIA-RDP79-00798A001000100007-9 ADMIN INTERNAL USE ONLY RF. FILE VR El A826 PAGE 02-02 TOR12708272 NOV 75 R[PRODUCTION ^Y OTHER THAN ISSUINQ ORRICK Is PRONIRITRD USSR ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, 9, VOYEVODA, OLEGDMITRIYEVICH 6 APRIL 1946 MOSCOW JUNIOR RESEARCHER. INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS OF EARTH OF USSR ACADEMY O F SCIENCES, 10, FOR JOINT RESEARCH IN FORECASTING EARTHQUAKES, CONTACT MR, BILL BROWN, EPA, EAST TOWER ROOM 10025, 401 M STREET S,W, WASHINGTON, D,C, 20516, TEL 426-2617 .11, ETD DECEMBER a p STAY 1 - 3 MONTHS, EMBASSY REQUESTS AUTHORISATION FOR ENTRY DECEMBER AND JANUARY STO ESSEL STATE MESSAGE NC 35758 Approved For Release 2000Rl16 ?ITI&~PP 001000100007-9 A~i ~1~L~~i.

7.71 MFG. ?/Approved For ReleasemR000/09/06 : CIA-RDP79-00798 1000100007-9 tAt2 TOTAL COPIES ZS~ RUI Y / CABLE SEC DISSEM BY_y7 PERy/ /. // REPRO DUCT*ON SY OTHER THAN .'/ .rr.uua wrr.nr .n ii-minivan PERSON/UNIT NOTIFIED ApVANgg PYISSUED/SL OTTED FILE 4ACTION N UNIT N F # O ADMIN INTERNAL USE ON f Lc.~o, o ~Psfib T 493941 EIA826 PAGE 01 TOR1270827F. NOV 75 STATE MESSAGE NC 35758 R 261458E NOV 75 / FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW N /. TQ RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7178 RUEHFB/DIRECTOR FBI ~. V . 0 ST UNCLAS MOSCOW 17031 VISAS DONKEY CHIPMUNK E, O, 11652: N/A T.AGS:CVIS UR (APTIKAYEV, FELIKS FUADOVICH) SUBJECT: VISAS SPLEXII SOVIET DELEGATION VISITING UNDER ENVIRONMENTAL AGREEMENT, WORKING GROUP IX-1P EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION It APT IKAY.EV, FELIKS FUADOVIC H 11 OCT 1932 MOSCOW RE.SE.ARCHER, INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS OF EARTH, ACADEMY OF SCIENCES 2, MAKSIMOV, ALEKSANDR BOR ISOVICH 11 FEB 1941 MOSCOW RESEARCHER, INSTITUTE OF EARTH PHYSICS, ACADEMY OF SCIENCES 3, MOLCHAN, VIKTOR IOSIFOVICH JAN 1939 GOMEL' RESEARCH?ERP INSTITUTE OF EARTH PHYSICS, ACADEMY OF SCIENCES 4,' MYACHKIN, VIKTOR IOSIFOVICH 4 JULY 1930 SMGLENSK LAB CHIEF, INSTITUTE OF EARTH PHYSICS, ACADEMY OF SCIENCES 5, PISARENKO. VLADILEN FEDOROVICH. 12 MAY 1934 MOSCOW DEPARTMENT CHIEF, INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS OF EARTH OF USSR ACADEMY OF SCIENCES # DOCTOR PHYSICAL AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES, 6, SALOV, BORIS GEORG IYEV IC H 26 NOVEMBER 1938 POLYARNYY SENIOR ENGINEER, 'INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS OF EARTH OF USSR ACADEMY OF SCIENCES. 7, SOBOLEV, GENNADIY ALEKSANDROVICH 7.APRIL 1935 SMOLENSK PHYSICS OFEARTH OF LABORATORY CHIEF+ INSTITUTE PHYSICAL AND USSR ACADEMY OF SCI Ir MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES, 8, TRO ITSK IY, PETR ALEKSANDROVICH 21 APRIL 1946 LE.NI NGRAD r~F;(S~~ RT OF JUA o *08F 6a S1w ??'Nt'I"F: 0 Q01000100007-9 State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file /-/I U. 4/lb_ Approved For Release 2000/09/06 CIA-RDP79-00798A001000100007-9 ADMIN INTERNAL USE ONLY RF. FILE VR El A826 PAGE 02-02 TOR12708272 NOV 75 R[PRODUCTION ^Y OTHER THAN ISSUINQ ORRICK Is PRONIRITRD USSR ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, 9, VOYEVODA, OLEGDMITRIYEVICH 6 APRIL 1946 MOSCOW JUNIOR RESEARCHER. INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS OF EARTH OF USSR ACADEMY O F SCIENCES, 10, FOR JOINT RESEARCH IN FORECASTING EARTHQUAKES, CONTACT MR, BILL BROWN, EPA, EAST TOWER ROOM 10025, 401 M STREET S,W, WASHINGTON, D,C, 20516, TEL 426-2617 .11, ETD DECEMBER a p STAY 1 - 3 MONTHS, EMBASSY REQUESTS AUTHORISATION FOR ENTRY DECEMBER AND JANUARY STO ESSEL STATE MESSAGE NC 35758 Approved For Release 2000Rl16 ?ITI&~PP 001000100007-9 A~i ~1~L~~i.

Predicting earthquakes is of prime importance to urban regions situated near fault zones. The science behind these methods was explored with the recent recipient of the prestigious Japan Academy Prize, Prof. Hiroo Kanamori.

Earth and Planetary Science C20, 001 - Fall 2014 Earthquakes in Your Backyard - Richard Allen All Rights Reserved

STATINTL STATINTL .Approved For Release 0800/09/06 : CIA-RDP79-00798A(00010000 r.A T* Of 0 2) 0 0 90 CD CD STATINTL UNCLASSIFIED 9483 POSS DUPE PA GE 01 MOSCOW 15522 13 1I! ACTION Vila;;- ,'0 ISC' CIAO-ul0 u>?E~