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Given standard characteristics of processors and memory, we present two simple ways of estimating the performance of shared memory multiprocessors. At the cost of a few simple arithmetic operations, a computer designer can estimate the range of performance using our 4-point bound model. If more accuracy is required, we show that a one page program can estimate performance within 3% of trace-driven simulation, while reducing software development time, disk space, and CPU time by orders of magnitude. To demonstrate the use of our models, an application to the SPUR multiprocessor design is presented.