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Dtic Ada303829%3a A Neural Network Approach To The Prediction And Confidence Assignation Of Nonlinear Time Series Classifications by Defense Technical Information Center
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1DTIC ADA303829: A Neural Network Approach To The Prediction And Confidence Assignation Of Nonlinear Time Series Classifications
By Defense Technical Information Center
This thesis uses multiple layer perceptrons (MLP) neural networks and Kohonen clustering networks to predict and assign confidence to nonlinear time series classifications. The nonlinear time series used for analysis is the Standard and Poor's 100 (S&P 100) index. The target prediction is classification of the daily index change. Financial indicators were evaluated to determine the most useful combination of features for input into the networks. After evaluation it was determined that net changes in the index over time and three short-term indicators result in better accuracy. A back-propagation trained MLP neural network was then trained with these features to get a daily classification prediction of up or down. Next, a Kohonen clustering network was trained to develop 30 different clusters. The predictions from the MLP network were labeled as correct or incorrect within each classification and counted in each category to determine a confidence for a given cluster. Test data was then run through both networks and predictions were assigned a confidence based on which cluster they belonged to. The results of these tests show that this method can improve the accuracy of predictions from 51% to 73%. Within a cluster accuracy is near 100% for some classifications.
“DTIC ADA303829: A Neural Network Approach To The Prediction And Confidence Assignation Of Nonlinear Time Series Classifications” Metadata:
- Title: ➤ DTIC ADA303829: A Neural Network Approach To The Prediction And Confidence Assignation Of Nonlinear Time Series Classifications
- Author: ➤ Defense Technical Information Center
- Language: English
“DTIC ADA303829: A Neural Network Approach To The Prediction And Confidence Assignation Of Nonlinear Time Series Classifications” Subjects and Themes:
- Subjects: ➤ DTIC Archive - Heim, Erin S - AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF LOGISTICS AND ACQUISITION MANAGEMENT - *NEURAL NETS - MARKETING - DATA MANAGEMENT - REASONING - TIME SERIES ANALYSIS - ACCURACY - LEARNING MACHINES - THESES - SELF ORGANIZING SYSTEMS - NONLINEAR SYSTEMS - MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION - CLASSIFICATION - KNOWLEDGE BASED SYSTEMS - SYSTEMS ANALYSIS - NONLINEAR ANALYSIS - CONFIDENCE LEVEL - FINANCE - SOFTWARE ENGINEERING - INPUT OUTPUT PROCESSING
Edition Identifiers:
- Internet Archive ID: DTIC_ADA303829
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The book is available for download in "texts" format, the size of the file-s is: 28.28 Mbs, the file-s for this book were downloaded 85 times, the file-s went public at Sun Mar 25 2018.
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