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Biodiversity loss and variation in species responses to climate and land use change have been found across broad taxonomic groups. However, whether species from the same taxonomic group with distinct geographical ranges will respond differently is poorly understood. The aim of this study is to predict the potential impacts of future climate and land use change on the distribution of narrow- and wide-ranging Rhododendron species, and estimate their relative contribution in China. We applied the presence-only ecological niche model MaxEnt to predict the distribution of 10 narrow-ranging and 10 wide-ranging Rhododendron species for the year 2070, using three general circulation models and three scenarios of climate and land use change. We measured the predicted distribution change of each species using change ratio, distance and direction of core range shifts, and niche overlap using Schoener's D. We found that the distribution areas of six narrow-ranging species would decrease, of which one species would go extinct. The remaining four narrow-ranging species would experience range expansion. Distribution of all the wide-ranging Rhododendron species would decrease. All Rhododendrons will shift to the northwest. We conclude that Rhododendron species generally will be negatively affected by the climatic and land use change expected in 2070 from the three scenarios evaluated in this study, but some narrow-ranging species may be positively influenced. Narrow-ranging Rhododendron species are more vulnerable compared to wide-ranging Rhododendron species. This study demonstrated that the effects of climate and land use change on alpine and subalpine plant species is species-specific, thereby strengthening our understanding of the impacts of climate and land use change on plant distribution.

Fang Ruida - World Leader International Leader, Scientist Philosopher Thinker Cosmologist Composer, the great sun will always shine on the vast human land and planet world) Excerpts from Fang Ruida's classic quotations on the great changes in the world (Clio 2018, 2022v.1.2 Electronic edition) Bestselling eBook

This is version 1.0 of the protocol for the systematic map "Effects of land use and land cover changes on biodiversity, ecosystem services, and carbon storage in Norway: A systematic map and decision support tool". The protocol is subject to review by an expert group and invited stakeholders, and will be updated based on the comments and input from the reviewer. After the protocol has been revised, a new version will be registered (published), and assigned a new doi.

Kerala Legislative Assembly Proceedings Date: 10-06-2021 Assembly: KLA - 15 (2021-2026) Session: 1 Event: Question Hour Subject: Changes in the Land Registry

Spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of land use/land cover (LULC) changes in the Jinghe River Basin, China 作者： WANG Yinping 作者单位： 1. State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an 710048, China 提交时间： 2024-01-12 20:13:50 摘要: Understanding the trajectories and driving mechanisms behind land use/land cover (LULC) changes is essential for effective watershed planning and management. This study quantified the net change, exchange, total change, and transfer rate of LULC in the Jinghe River Basin (JRB), China using LULC data from 2000 to 2020. Through trajectory analysis, knowledge maps, chord diagrams, and standard deviation ellipse method, we examined the spatiotemporal characteristics of LULC changes. We further established an index system encompassing natural factors (digital elevation model (DEM), slope, aspect, and curvature), socio-economic factors (gross domestic product (GDP) and population), and accessibility factors (distance from railways, distance from highways, distance from water, and distance from residents) to investigate the driving mechanisms of LULC changes using factor detector and interaction detector in the geographical detector (Geodetector). The key findings indicate that from 2000 to 2020, the JRB experienced significant LULC changes, particularly for farmland, forest, and grassland. During the study period, LULC change trajectories were categorized into stable, early-stage, late-stage, repeated, and continuous change types. Besides the stable change type, the late-stage change type predominated the LULC change trajectories, comprising 83.31% of the total change area. The period 2010–2020 witnessed more active LULC changes compared to the period 2000–2010. The LULC changes exhibited a discrete spatial expansion trend during 2000–2020, predominantly extending from southeast to northwest of the JRB. Influential driving factors on LULC changes included slope, GDP, and distance from highways. The interaction detection results imply either bilinear or nonlinear enhancement for any two driving factors impacting the LULC changes from 2000 to 2020. This comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of LULC changes offers valuable insights for the planning and sustainable management of LULC in the JRB. land use/land cover (LULC) changes driving mechanisms trajectory analysis geographical detector (Geodetector) Grain for Green Project Jinghe River Basin 期刊： Journal of Arid Land 分类： 地球科学 >> 地理学 投稿状态： 已在期刊出版 引用： ChinaXiv:202401.00186 (或此版本 ChinaXiv:202401.00186V1 ) DOI:10.1007/s40333-024-0051-x CSTR:32003.36.ChinaXiv.202401.00186.V1 推荐引用方式： WANG Yinping.(2024).Spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of land use/land cover (LULC) changes in the Jinghe River Basin, China.干旱区科学.doi:10.1007/s40333-024-0051-x 版本历史 [V1] 2024-01-12 20:13:50 ChinaXiv:202401.00186V1 下载全文

With rapid increases in global food demand and production, oil palm expansion constitutes a major emerging challenge for forest conservation in Amazonia and other tropical forest regions. This threat is evident in the Peruvian Amazon, where local and national incentives for oil palm cultivation along with growing large-scale investments translate into accelerated oil palm expansion. Environmental sustainability of oil palm cultivation in the Peruvian Amazon is contingent on policy incentives for expansion onto already-cleared lands instead of biodiverse, high carbon primary rainforests. Previous research indicates that while industrial plantations use less land area than local smallholders, companies have a higher tendency to expand into primary rainforests. However, the motivations behind these differing expansion scenarios remain unclear. In this study we combine data from optical and radar satellite sensors with training information, field discussions, and review of public documents to examine the policy incentives and spatial patterns associated with oil palm expansion by smallholders and industries in one of Peru's most rapidly changing Amazonian landscapes: the Ucayali region of the city of Pucallpa. Based on our satellite-based land cover change analysis, we found that between 2010 and 2016, smallholders utilized 21,070 ha more land area for oil palm than industries but industrial expansion occurred predominantly in old growth forests (70%) in contrast to degraded lands for smallholders (56%). Our analysis of national policies related to oil palm expansion reveal policy loopholes associated with Peru's “best land use” classification system that allow for standing forests to undergo large-scale agricultural development with little government oversight. We conclude that both sectors will need careful, real-time monitoring and government engagement to reduce old-growth forest loss and develop successful strategies for mitigating future environmental impacts of oil palm expansion.

This paper studies the changes of groundwater, climate and land use in the Pampas of Argentina. These changes offer opportunities and threats. Lowering groundwater without irrigation causes drought and successive crop and yield damage. Rising groundwater may alleviate drought as capillary rise supports root water uptake and crop growth, thus narrowing the difference between potential and actual yields. However, rising groundwater may also limit soil water storage, cause flooding in metropolitan areas and have a negative impact on crop yields. Changing land use from continuous soy bean into crop rotations or natural vegetation may decrease groundwater recharge and thus decrease groundwater levels. In case of crop rotation however, leaching of nutrients like nitrate may increase. We quantified these impacts using integrated dynamic crop growth and soil hydrology modelling. The models were tested at field scale using a local dataset from Argentina. We applied distributed modelling at regional scale to evaluate the impacts on groundwater recharge and crop yields using long term weather data. The experiments showed that threats arise from continuous monotone land use. Opportunities are created when a proper balance is found between supply and demand of soil water using a larger differentiation of land use. Increasing the areas of land use types with higher evapotranspiration, like permanent grassland and trees, will contribute to a more stable hydrologic system with more water storage capacities in the soil system and lower groundwater levels. Modelling tools clearly support the evaluation of the impact of land use and climate change on groundwater levels and crop yields.

The eastern part of the Russian Plain is an important agricultural region of European Russia with high proportion of cultivated lands in the steppe, forest-steppe and forest (southern part) landscape zones. Soil erosion is the main process of land degradation and surface water contamination there. Climate and land cover changes have been observed in this region during the last 30 years. However, field quantitative assessments of soil erosion rates are not available for the eastern part of European Russia due to the lack of monitoring data as well as the evaluation of erosion/deposition processes in cultivated catchments using other field methods. Three representative small cultivated catchments with high (> 80%) proportion of cultivated lands were selected in the forest (southern part), forest-steppe and steppe zones of the study region to evaluate sedimentation rates in dry valley bottoms of the catchments for two-time intervals (1963–1986 and 1987–2016) based on the application of the bomb-derived and Chernobyl-derived 137Cs isotope for sediment dating. The 3–4 depth 137Cs profiles were used to assess the sedimentation rates within the each investigated catchment. It was established that the sedimentation rates have considerably decreased (at least 2–3 times) over the last 30 years compared to 1963–1986 in all the investigated catchments. This is in agreement with results of erosion rate calculations using erosion models for the forest zone, however not consistent with erosion rates assessments for the forest-steppe and steppe zones. According to the model calculations, erosion rates show a slight decrease in the forest-steppe zone and increase in the steppe zone. The reduction in surface runoff during snowmelt period is one of the reasons for decrease in erosion rates within cultivated slopes for all the investigated catchments. The increase in proportion of perennial grasses in the regional crop rotation is another important reason for the decrease in erosion rates for the catchment located in the south of the forest zone. The importance of land cover changes in a major decrease of soil losses from the cultivated fields of the investigated catchments located in the forest-steppe and steppe zones cannot be identified due to the lack detailed information about crop rotation for those particular sites. However, available regional information about crop rotation changes for the two-time intervals (1960–1980 and 1996–2012) do not explain very high reduction in sedimentation rates in the dry valley bottoms after 1986.

The eastern part of the Russian Plain is an important agricultural region of European Russia with high proportion of cultivated lands in the steppe, forest-steppe and forest (southern part) landscape zones. Soil erosion is the main process of land degradation and surface water contamination there. Climate and land cover changes have been observed in this region during the last 30 years. However, field quantitative assessments of soil erosion rates are not available for the eastern part of European Russia due to the lack of monitoring data as well as the evaluation of erosion/deposition processes in cultivated catchments using other field methods. Three representative small cultivated catchments with high (> 80%) proportion of cultivated lands were selected in the forest (southern part), forest-steppe and steppe zones of the study region to evaluate sedimentation rates in dry valley bottoms of the catchments for two-time intervals (1963–1986 and 1987–2016) based on the application of the bomb-derived and Chernobyl-derived 137Cs isotope for sediment dating. The 3–4 depth 137Cs profiles were used to assess the sedimentation rates within the each investigated catchment. It was established that the sedimentation rates have considerably decreased (at least 2–3 times) over the last 30 years compared to 1963–1986 in all the investigated catchments. This is in agreement with results of erosion rate calculations using erosion models for the forest zone, however not consistent with erosion rates assessments for the forest-steppe and steppe zones. According to the model calculations, erosion rates show a slight decrease in the forest-steppe zone and increase in the steppe zone. The reduction in surface runoff during snowmelt period is one of the reasons for decrease in erosion rates within cultivated slopes for all the investigated catchments. The increase in proportion of perennial grasses in the regional crop rotation is another important reason for the decrease in erosion rates for the catchment located in the south of the forest zone. The importance of land cover changes in a major decrease of soil losses from the cultivated fields of the investigated catchments located in the forest-steppe and steppe zones cannot be identified due to the lack detailed information about crop rotation for those particular sites. However, available regional information about crop rotation changes for the two-time intervals (1960–1980 and 1996–2012) do not explain very high reduction in sedimentation rates in the dry valley bottoms after 1986.

Introduction One of the factors affecting the surface runoff characteristics and the fluctuations of groundwater in the watersheds is the land use change at different levels of the basins. Land use change can also be a conversion from one user to another, or, in other words, changes in the composition and pattern of land use in a region, or the modification of a particular type, is land use change (Jakeman et al., 2005). Incorrect land use changes will disrupt the water cycle from natural equilibrium, which will result in damage caused by devastating floods, including economic losses, loss of life, waste of water, and consequently the loss of water resources. Land use changes also affect surface and subsurface flow changes (Palamuleni et al., 2011). On the other hand, groundwater, like other natural resources (both quantitatively and qualitatively) is subjected to the threat of human activities. Underground water drainage and depletion of groundwater aquifer and its consequences including increased water harvesting costs, land subsidence, and water quality has declined across regions of the world. In recent years, several studies have been done on land use change. For example Zou et al. (2016) detected hydrological changes using statistical tests, SWAT, and land use maps. The results show significant decreasing trends in both annual runoff and sediment loads, whereas slightly decreasing and significantly increasing trends are detected for annual precipitation and air temperature, respectively. Akter et al. (2018) investigated the hydrological behavior due to the urbanization under current and future climate scenarios of high summer and high winter rainfall for 20 sub-catchments of the Schijn River, in Belgium. Results revealed that peak flow for urban runoff and the total peak flow (i.e. rural and urban runoff) were significantly higher (i.e. ranges from 200% to 500%) than the existing rainfall-runoff model (PDM) flows because of faster and more peaked urban runoff responses. Lee and Brody (2018) examined the impact of land use on flood losses in Seoul, Korea. Results indicate that urban built-up land with higher impervious surfaces and agricultural land may cause more flood damage than other land uses analyzed in the study. However, a high density development of compact design can decrease flood loss. These results indicate the importance of resilient land use planning in urban areas. Jodar-Abellan et al., (2019) investigated the impact of land use changes on flash flood prediction using a sub-daily SWAT model in five Mediterranean ungauged watersheds. The results showed that with increasing flow rate peaks and decreasing concentration time and high urban development along the Spanish coastline in the studied basin, the curve number increased and the discharge rate exceed 900 m3/s. The aim of the current research is to study the effect of different land uses and its changes during the years 1371, 1381, and 1391 on surface run off, flood, and groundwater fluctuations in a part of Ghareh Su, Ardabil watershed. Materials and Methods The study area in this study is part of Ghareh Souh basin in Ardebil province with an area of 2162.62 square kilometers in the geographical area of 48º 27ʹ 36" and 49º 12ʹ 06" east longitude 37º 47ʹ 20" and 38º 37ʹ 25" in the north latitude. The minimum and maximum altitudes of the watershed are 1280 and 3829 meters above sea level respectively, and the average slope is 11.57 percent. Land use in this area often includes forest, water farming, wasteland land, rangeland, dry farming, and urban land uses. Among the types of land uses in the studied basin, the use of dry farming has the highest level of the basin. In this research, satellite images needed for the years studied (1371, 1381 and 1391) were prepared from the site of the US Geological survey. After providing satellite imagery for the study area, ENVI software was used during different stages of image processing. For this purpose, maximum likelihood classifier was used to study vegetation changes. Before analyzing satellite data, it is necessary to make corrections on raw images. In remote sensing, raw data errors are sensor errors and atmospheric effects. To correct the error, the method of atmospheric correction and systematic geometric correction are used. At first, the maps of land use and curve number in the mentioned years was gathered and the area of each of units was extracted. In continue, the process of land use changes in the cases of study period and its effect on changing the curve number and height of runoff and then stimulation of flood by the model of HEC-HMS and drawing of the hydrograph was done. In the end, the effect of land use changes on groundwater level was studied. To calculate runoff from annual precipitation, the average annual precipitation of 14 rain-gauge stations was used in the part of the Ghareh Souz basin. Results and Discussion In this study, permeability was obtained using a soil map of the region that included soil texture characteristics. Then, due to soil permeability, a map of soil hydrological groups (A, B, C and D) was extracted. It is observed that the hydrological group C has the largest area, which is equal to 49.82% of the basin, and the hydrological group B also includes 72.74% of the basin area. Therefore, due to the fact that the hydrological group C has the largest area in the basin area, the studied basin is more capable of runoff production. Regarding the results, it can be seen that the studied area is more moderate and relatively low permeability classes in terms of permeability. The results showed that total losses in 1371 was 69.28 mm, which in 1381 was 66.95 mm and in 1391 it decreased to 64.42 mm. The amount of runoff was reduced which was 263.4 mm in 1371, but in the year 1381 the amount of runoff increased to 294.785 mm which in 1391 it increased to 297.07 mm . The increase in runoff in the studied basin can be due to an increase in the number of curves. The results showed that during the case of study period, forest areas, water farming, and wasteland uses were decreased to 2.54%, 16.69%, and 1.19%, respectively and the area of the rangeland, dry farming, and urban land uses increased to 5.74%, 12.39%, 2.29%, respectively. This changes have caused the increase of curve number from 78.57 to 79.77 in the year 1371 and 1391, respectively and following the decrease of total losses from 69.28 millimeters in the year 1371 to 64.42 millimeters in the year 1391. Also, run off height has increased from 263.4 millimeters in the year 1371 to 297.07mm in the year 1391 (11.33%). Considering the curve number and flood stimulation, the achieved results showed that peak discharge and flood volume have increased to 9.49% and 6.67%, respectively. In the end, these changes have led to a decrease of groundwater level to 6.14 meters (39.06%) during the studied period. Conclusion Due to the increased utilization of urban land as well as the increasing dry farming and underground water withdrawals, by decreasing the permeability of the basin soil, the amount of flood and runoff has increased and eventually we face a drop in groundwater. Calculation of correlation coefficient between different land uses and curve number, runoff height, flood volume, and groundwater level showed that these variables have direct relation with rangeland, dry farming, and urban land uses while they have inverse relationship with forest, water farming and wasteland.

Introduction One of the factors affecting the surface runoff characteristics and the fluctuations of groundwater in the watersheds is the land use change at different levels of the basins. Land use change can also be a conversion from one user to another, or, in other words, changes in the composition and pattern of land use in a region, or the modification of a particular type, is land use change (Jakeman et al., 2005). Incorrect land use changes will disrupt the water cycle from natural equilibrium, which will result in damage caused by devastating floods, including economic losses, loss of life, waste of water, and consequently the loss of water resources. Land use changes also affect surface and subsurface flow changes (Palamuleni et al., 2011). On the other hand, groundwater, like other natural resources (both quantitatively and qualitatively) is subjected to the threat of human activities. Underground water drainage and depletion of groundwater aquifer and its consequences including increased water harvesting costs, land subsidence, and water quality has declined across regions of the world. In recent years, several studies have been done on land use change. For example Zou et al. (2016) detected hydrological changes using statistical tests, SWAT, and land use maps. The results show significant decreasing trends in both annual runoff and sediment loads, whereas slightly decreasing and significantly increasing trends are detected for annual precipitation and air temperature, respectively. Akter et al. (2018) investigated the hydrological behavior due to the urbanization under current and future climate scenarios of high summer and high winter rainfall for 20 sub-catchments of the Schijn River, in Belgium. Results revealed that peak flow for urban runoff and the total peak flow (i.e. rural and urban runoff) were significantly higher (i.e. ranges from 200% to 500%) than the existing rainfall-runoff model (PDM) flows because of faster and more peaked urban runoff responses. Lee and Brody (2018) examined the impact of land use on flood losses in Seoul, Korea. Results indicate that urban built-up land with higher impervious surfaces and agricultural land may cause more flood damage than other land uses analyzed in the study. However, a high density development of compact design can decrease flood loss. These results indicate the importance of resilient land use planning in urban areas. Jodar-Abellan et al., (2019) investigated the impact of land use changes on flash flood prediction using a sub-daily SWAT model in five Mediterranean ungauged watersheds. The results showed that with increasing flow rate peaks and decreasing concentration time and high urban development along the Spanish coastline in the studied basin, the curve number increased and the discharge rate exceed 900 m3/s. The aim of the current research is to study the effect of different land uses and its changes during the years 1371, 1381, and 1391 on surface run off, flood, and groundwater fluctuations in a part of Ghareh Su, Ardabil watershed. Materials and Methods The study area in this study is part of Ghareh Souh basin in Ardebil province with an area of 2162.62 square kilometers in the geographical area of 48º 27ʹ 36" and 49º 12ʹ 06" east longitude 37º 47ʹ 20" and 38º 37ʹ 25" in the north latitude. The minimum and maximum altitudes of the watershed are 1280 and 3829 meters above sea level respectively, and the average slope is 11.57 percent. Land use in this area often includes forest, water farming, wasteland land, rangeland, dry farming, and urban land uses. Among the types of land uses in the studied basin, the use of dry farming has the highest level of the basin. In this research, satellite images needed for the years studied (1371, 1381 and 1391) were prepared from the site of the US Geological survey. After providing satellite imagery for the study area, ENVI software was used during different stages of image processing. For this purpose, maximum likelihood classifier was used to study vegetation changes. Before analyzing satellite data, it is necessary to make corrections on raw images. In remote sensing, raw data errors are sensor errors and atmospheric effects. To correct the error, the method of atmospheric correction and systematic geometric correction are used. At first, the maps of land use and curve number in the mentioned years was gathered and the area of each of units was extracted. In continue, the process of land use changes in the cases of study period and its effect on changing the curve number and height of runoff and then stimulation of flood by the model of HEC-HMS and drawing of the hydrograph was done. In the end, the effect of land use changes on groundwater level was studied. To calculate runoff from annual precipitation, the average annual precipitation of 14 rain-gauge stations was used in the part of the Ghareh Souz basin. Results and Discussion In this study, permeability was obtained using a soil map of the region that included soil texture characteristics. Then, due to soil permeability, a map of soil hydrological groups (A, B, C and D) was extracted. It is observed that the hydrological group C has the largest area, which is equal to 49.82% of the basin, and the hydrological group B also includes 72.74% of the basin area. Therefore, due to the fact that the hydrological group C has the largest area in the basin area, the studied basin is more capable of runoff production. Regarding the results, it can be seen that the studied area is more moderate and relatively low permeability classes in terms of permeability. The results showed that total losses in 1371 was 69.28 mm, which in 1381 was 66.95 mm and in 1391 it decreased to 64.42 mm. The amount of runoff was reduced which was 263.4 mm in 1371, but in the year 1381 the amount of runoff increased to 294.785 mm which in 1391 it increased to 297.07 mm . The increase in runoff in the studied basin can be due to an increase in the number of curves. The results showed that during the case of study period, forest areas, water farming, and wasteland uses were decreased to 2.54%, 16.69%, and 1.19%, respectively and the area of the rangeland, dry farming, and urban land uses increased to 5.74%, 12.39%, 2.29%, respectively. This changes have caused the increase of curve number from 78.57 to 79.77 in the year 1371 and 1391, respectively and following the decrease of total losses from 69.28 millimeters in the year 1371 to 64.42 millimeters in the year 1391. Also, run off height has increased from 263.4 millimeters in the year 1371 to 297.07mm in the year 1391 (11.33%). Considering the curve number and flood stimulation, the achieved results showed that peak discharge and flood volume have increased to 9.49% and 6.67%, respectively. In the end, these changes have led to a decrease of groundwater level to 6.14 meters (39.06%) during the studied period. Conclusion Due to the increased utilization of urban land as well as the increasing dry farming and underground water withdrawals, by decreasing the permeability of the basin soil, the amount of flood and runoff has increased and eventually we face a drop in groundwater. Calculation of correlation coefficient between different land uses and curve number, runoff height, flood volume, and groundwater level showed that these variables have direct relation with rangeland, dry farming, and urban land uses while they have inverse relationship with forest, water farming and wasteland.

Introduction One of the factors affecting the surface runoff characteristics and the fluctuations of groundwater in the watersheds is the land use change at different levels of the basins. Land use change can also be a conversion from one user to another, or, in other words, changes in the composition and pattern of land use in a region, or the modification of a particular type, is land use change (Jakeman et al., 2005). Incorrect land use changes will disrupt the water cycle from natural equilibrium, which will result in damage caused by devastating floods, including economic losses, loss of life, waste of water, and consequently the loss of water resources. Land use changes also affect surface and subsurface flow changes (Palamuleni et al., 2011). On the other hand, groundwater, like other natural resources (both quantitatively and qualitatively) is subjected to the threat of human activities. Underground water drainage and depletion of groundwater aquifer and its consequences including increased water harvesting costs, land subsidence, and water quality has declined across regions of the world. In recent years, several studies have been done on land use change. For example Zou et al. (2016) detected hydrological changes using statistical tests, SWAT, and land use maps. The results show significant decreasing trends in both annual runoff and sediment loads, whereas slightly decreasing and significantly increasing trends are detected for annual precipitation and air temperature, respectively. Akter et al. (2018) investigated the hydrological behavior due to the urbanization under current and future climate scenarios of high summer and high winter rainfall for 20 sub-catchments of the Schijn River, in Belgium. Results revealed that peak flow for urban runoff and the total peak flow (i.e. rural and urban runoff) were significantly higher (i.e. ranges from 200% to 500%) than the existing rainfall-runoff model (PDM) flows because of faster and more peaked urban runoff responses. Lee and Brody (2018) examined the impact of land use on flood losses in Seoul, Korea. Results indicate that urban built-up land with higher impervious surfaces and agricultural land may cause more flood damage than other land uses analyzed in the study. However, a high density development of compact design can decrease flood loss. These results indicate the importance of resilient land use planning in urban areas. Jodar-Abellan et al., (2019) investigated the impact of land use changes on flash flood prediction using a sub-daily SWAT model in five Mediterranean ungauged watersheds. The results showed that with increasing flow rate peaks and decreasing concentration time and high urban development along the Spanish coastline in the studied basin, the curve number increased and the discharge rate exceed 900 m3/s. The aim of the current research is to study the effect of different land uses and its changes during the years 1371, 1381, and 1391 on surface run off, flood, and groundwater fluctuations in a part of Ghareh Su, Ardabil watershed. Materials and Methods The study area in this study is part of Ghareh Souh basin in Ardebil province with an area of 2162.62 square kilometers in the geographical area of 48º 27ʹ 36" and 49º 12ʹ 06" east longitude 37º 47ʹ 20" and 38º 37ʹ 25" in the north latitude. The minimum and maximum altitudes of the watershed are 1280 and 3829 meters above sea level respectively, and the average slope is 11.57 percent. Land use in this area often includes forest, water farming, wasteland land, rangeland, dry farming, and urban land uses. Among the types of land uses in the studied basin, the use of dry farming has the highest level of the basin. In this research, satellite images needed for the years studied (1371, 1381 and 1391) were prepared from the site of the US Geological survey. After providing satellite imagery for the study area, ENVI software was used during different stages of image processing. For this purpose, maximum likelihood classifier was used to study vegetation changes. Before analyzing satellite data, it is necessary to make corrections on raw images. In remote sensing, raw data errors are sensor errors and atmospheric effects. To correct the error, the method of atmospheric correction and systematic geometric correction are used. At first, the maps of land use and curve number in the mentioned years was gathered and the area of each of units was extracted. In continue, the process of land use changes in the cases of study period and its effect on changing the curve number and height of runoff and then stimulation of flood by the model of HEC-HMS and drawing of the hydrograph was done. In the end, the effect of land use changes on groundwater level was studied. To calculate runoff from annual precipitation, the average annual precipitation of 14 rain-gauge stations was used in the part of the Ghareh Souz basin. Results and Discussion In this study, permeability was obtained using a soil map of the region that included soil texture characteristics. Then, due to soil permeability, a map of soil hydrological groups (A, B, C and D) was extracted. It is observed that the hydrological group C has the largest area, which is equal to 49.82% of the basin, and the hydrological group B also includes 72.74% of the basin area. Therefore, due to the fact that the hydrological group C has the largest area in the basin area, the studied basin is more capable of runoff production. Regarding the results, it can be seen that the studied area is more moderate and relatively low permeability classes in terms of permeability. The results showed that total losses in 1371 was 69.28 mm, which in 1381 was 66.95 mm and in 1391 it decreased to 64.42 mm. The amount of runoff was reduced which was 263.4 mm in 1371, but in the year 1381 the amount of runoff increased to 294.785 mm which in 1391 it increased to 297.07 mm . The increase in runoff in the studied basin can be due to an increase in the number of curves. The results showed that during the case of study period, forest areas, water farming, and wasteland uses were decreased to 2.54%, 16.69%, and 1.19%, respectively and the area of the rangeland, dry farming, and urban land uses increased to 5.74%, 12.39%, 2.29%, respectively. This changes have caused the increase of curve number from 78.57 to 79.77 in the year 1371 and 1391, respectively and following the decrease of total losses from 69.28 millimeters in the year 1371 to 64.42 millimeters in the year 1391. Also, run off height has increased from 263.4 millimeters in the year 1371 to 297.07mm in the year 1391 (11.33%). Considering the curve number and flood stimulation, the achieved results showed that peak discharge and flood volume have increased to 9.49% and 6.67%, respectively. In the end, these changes have led to a decrease of groundwater level to 6.14 meters (39.06%) during the studied period. Conclusion Due to the increased utilization of urban land as well as the increasing dry farming and underground water withdrawals, by decreasing the permeability of the basin soil, the amount of flood and runoff has increased and eventually we face a drop in groundwater. Calculation of correlation coefficient between different land uses and curve number, runoff height, flood volume, and groundwater level showed that these variables have direct relation with rangeland, dry farming, and urban land uses while they have inverse relationship with forest, water farming and wasteland.

The repercussions of snow avalanches, land use changes, and atmospheric warming on landscape dynamics are very important in Atlantic mid-mountains but have received little research attention in comparison to other zones and types of ecological processes. Snow avalanche disturbance have been studied without being to other aspects such as the abandonment of traditional agrosilvopastoral activities and the amplification of snowfall due to climate change. The main objective is to analyse interactions between snow avalanches, land use change, climatic warming, and their effects on the mid-mountain landscape in the Asturian Central Massif (Cantabrian Range, NW Spain). The applied methodology has involved field work, photointerpretation, geomorphological and phytosociological transects, as well as the analysis of climatic variables. This interdisciplinary combination has been completed with statistical, historical and GIS analysis. The depopulation and abandonment of traditional productive activities in the Atlantic mid-mountain explains the reduction of grasslands and the spontaneous reforestation of the forest area. However, the effectiveness and intensity of snow avalanches currently prevent the growth and recovery of the forests. Specifically, they affect 173.15 km 2 area of the Asturian Massif. In the Sierra del Aramo 370 ha are deforested by snow avalanches. There is a change in snowiness and in its behaviour (copious snowfall concentrated into storms lasting several days). The mid-mountain is affected by snow avalanches even in mid-latitudes and despite atmospheric warming. The disturbing effects of snow avalanches on the landscape dynamics prevent reforestation favoured by depopulation and changes in land use.

This protocol details the review conducted as part of the project “Effekter av arealbruk og arealbruksendringer på biomangfold, økosystemtjenester og karbonlagring: Et systematisk kart og beslutningsstøtteverktøy”. The project is funded by the Research Council of Norway. The protocol will be updated at specific intervals through the project, and each new version will be made publicly available and receive a doi. The protocols will be made available through the Open Science Framework (osf.io) as a time-stamped registration. The version log table above help the readers of the protocol to keep track of the protocol version number.

1. Introduction Increasing land-use changes have increased the need for managers and experts in land resources to understand how changes and developments have occurred as well as possible future changes for good and efficient policymaking and decision-making (Parker et al., 2003; Akbari et al., 2019). Today, land use change is important in terms of environmental change and has got the attention of scientists and decision makers (Mas et al., 2014). The increasing destruction of natural resources in many parts of the world is a serious threat to humanity. Therefore, desertification, which is one of the manifestations of this destruction, is currently a problem in many countries, including developing countries (Parvaneh, 2009). At present, remote sensing technology with the highest speed and accuracy is a suitable tool for assessing land use changes in order to monitor desertification (Hashemi-Nasab et al., 2018; Davari et al., 2018). Different land use models have been designed and used by researchers to predict land use changes in several studies such asDavolbit and Morari (2012) in Sudan, Lamchin et al. (2016) in Mongolia, Halabian et al. (2016) in Iran, Isfahan, using land use modeling, assessing and predicting desertification changes. Studies show that in recent years, land cover around the world has undergone many changes that can severely affect the environment and natural resources. Given that land degradation leads to desertification, this issue intensifies the importance of studying land cover changes, considering the strategic importance of Sarakhs region. In the present study, the temporal-spatial changes of land use in intensity of desertification have been investigated and modeled using satellite images.   2. Study Area The study area of ​​Sarakhs is a small part of the great Gharakhum basin which is located in Sarakhs city. The border of the region is in the western and southwestern part of Bazangan and Shurluq mountains, in the northern part is the Iran-Turkmenistan political border and in the eastern part of Tajan river. Geographically, the ferns range is located at 60 degrees 15 minutes to 61 degrees 10 minutes east longitude and 35 degrees 50 minutes 36 degrees 40 minutes north latitude. This area is naturally prone to desert expansion, which is exacerbated by its proximity to the Qaraqoom desert, creating a dry and cold climate. Wind erosion is more common in arid climates, where soil productivity intensifies drying conditions. Sarakhs region suffers from critical desertification conditions due to arid climate, low rainfall, unfavorable soil, land use change and increased wind erosion. The study area, as the epicenter of wind erosion crisis, has created environmental problems. Therefore, due to acute environmental and human problems and strategic location, Sarakhs was selected as the study area. 3. Materials and Methods In this study, Landsat TM and ETM+ sensors were used to study land use dynamics. Geometric, radiometric and atmospheric corrections were performed on the images. Satellite imagery from 2000 to 2015 was monitored to prepare the land use map and examine its changes over 15 years. In this study, Landsat satellite imagery classification maps were first prepared using the maximum likelihood method for the mentioned years. Finally, the user map for different years was prepared. The LCM Land Change Modeler was used to model land use change in 2030. Modeling in this model was done in three stages. In the first stage the influential variables were selected and introduced to the model and the role of each of them according to the Kramer coefficients was determined. In the second stage, the potential transfer map was prepared based on the effective variables and land use maps of the previous periods and in the third stage, the future land use map was prepared. The validity and reliability of the modeling and classification maps are based on the estimation of the kappa coefficient and overall accuracy. Common validation maps of classification lands and changes model prediction maps were used for validation. In this way, the predicted map of the model was compared with the land use map produced by the supervised method and obtained by calculating the standard kappa coefficient, position accuracy status and pixel quantities of each class. 4. Results and Discussion Map of land use classes of Sarakhs area in six classes of water level, agricultural lands, poor, and bay rangelands, medium and rich rangelands, wind deposits and residential areas and Landsat satellite imagery classification for the years under study were prepared. To determine the percentages of land use changes in the study period, each of the classes obtained in different years was individually placed on the sum of the classes obtained the following year, and then the number of changes of each of these uses was calculated in 2015. To import the variables into the land change modeler, it is necessary to map the variables. Altitude variables, distance from residential areas, distance from the road, distance from river and distance from agricultural land were selected as input variables of the model. It is possible to estimate the correlation of each variable with the existing land use and its ability to predict land use changes by calculating the Kramer coefficient. After revealing land use changes over the years 2000 to 2015, the number of changes in each transfer was predicted using the Markov Chain and the total land-use change map in the LCM model for 2030. To validate the power of the LCM model to produce land use maps for 2030, the 2000 and 2005 maps were first used to predict the 2015 map. To make this prediction, the change probability matrix and the probability area matrix of changes were prepared and based on defined sub-models and change probability maps, the 2015 land use map was prepared. Comparison of the model predicted map with the land use map prepared by the supervised method and calculation of standard kappa coefficient, accuracy condition for position and quantity of pixels of each class were obtained. The 2015 ground truth map was then compared with the simulated map of the land-change modeler. The accuracy of the model was evaluated based on the Kappa index. The error matrix results showed that the kappa coefficient of variation in the land change model is 0.85. Using the multilayer Preston neural network approach, the user change map for 2030 was obtained. According to the results, the process of reducing the average and rich rangelands and agricultural lands continues. The extent of wind deposits will also increase, covering about 17% of the area in 2030. 5. Conclusion In the present study, land use changes in the north east of the country over the three-time periods 2005 to 2015 were investigated using Landsat satellite imagery and the ability to predict land-use changes based on the LCM modeling approach. Comparative results of land use maps in the three mentioned periods show the level of change in all land uses. The degradation of medium and rich rangelands in the third period was higher than the degradation of the second and first periods, indicating more severe degradation in the 2015–2010 period. One of the reasons for most of the degradation of rich rangeland during this period is the reduction of rainfall, drought and surplus livestock in recent years. The most varied land use changes over the years can be attributed to a decrease of about 3 percent in medium and rich rangelands, an increase of three percent in poor and barren rangelands and an increase of about one percent in agricultural lands. The total area of ​​the sand has increased by more than 1% over the whole period. The decrease in rangeland and the increase in waste and agricultural land indicate the inappropriate use of these lands for agricultural purposes. Damage to rangelands, increased levels of agricultural land with the degradation of land, use of land outside their ability and potential have led to increased desertification. During this period, the area of ​​residential areas grew by about 0.2%. The results of predicting changes over the next 11 years using the LCM modeler show that if the current trend continues in the region, the development of sand dunes and increased rangeland destruction will continue. In the 2030 horizon, sandy zones will cover about 17 percent of the area, and the extent of the desert and poor rangelands will be about 60 percent.

We developed a remote sensing approach based on multi-satellite observations, which provides an unprecedented estimate of monthly distribution and area of land-surface open water over the whole globe. Results for 1993 to 2007 exhibit a large seasonal and inter-annual variability of the inundation extent with an overall decline in global average maximum inundated area of 6% during the fifteen-year period, primarily in tropical and subtropical South America and South Asia. The largest declines of open water are found where large increases in population have occurred over the last two decades, suggesting a global scale effect of human activities on continental surface freshwater: denser population can impact local hydrology by reducing freshwater extent, by draining marshes and wetlands, and by increasing water withdrawals. Citation: Prigent, C., F. Papa, F. Aires, C. Jimenez, W. B. Rossow, and E. Matthews (2012), Changes in land surface water dynamics since the 1990s and relation to population pressure, in section 4, insisting on the potential applications of the wetland dataset.

In alpine regions, global climate change will likely alter rain and snowfall patterns and increase the frequency of extreme meteorological events such as floods. These events, combined with land use changes, may pose an immediate hazard to the life and properties of downslope inhabitants and to water resource structures downstream. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of land use changes (e.g., areas covered by grassland, green alder, and dwarf shrubs) on peak discharge for different return periods and different scenarios (past, current, and future) in the Urseren Valley in the Central Swiss Alps. In addition to the entire Urseren Valley, we also considered four microcatchments of various sizes and land covers within the valley. We used the ZEMOKOST model, which considers the impact of a wide range of vegetation and channel characteristics on surface hydrology. Results at the catchment scale show an increase in peak discharge for all return periods from 2 to 300 years. In two microcatchments, simulation results indicate that expected changes in the vegetation cover will drastically decrease peak discharge in the future for all return periods, by up to 41% (for a 100-year return period). At the catchment scale, although the surface area covered by green alder increases by 38% and the area covered by dwarf shrubs decreases by 26% from the current to the future scenario, the peak discharge increases for all return periods except for the 2- and 5-year return periods. It appears that the drastic decrease of grassland area from the current to future (− 52%) scenario is responsible for the slight increase in peak discharge (about 4% for a 100-year period). In addition, surface area covered by dwarf shrub not only decreases from past to current scenario, but also clusters into more continuous zones damping lateral flow and resulting in such moderate increase. The consistency between observed and simulated peak discharge for a 100-year return period attests the reliability of our modelling outcomes. Careful land use planning taking into account the results of our analysis can help to better manage land and water resources in the region.

The general purpose of this research was to improve and update (to 1990) estimates of the net flux of carbon between the world's terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere from changes in land use (e.g., deforestation and reforestation). The estimates are important for understanding the global carbon cycle, and for predicting future concentrations of atmospheric CO2 that will result from emissions. The emphasis of the first year's research was on the northern temperate zone and boreal forests, where the greatest discrepancy exists between estimates of flux. Forest inventories suggest net sinks of 0.6 PgC/yr; inversion analyses based on atmospheric data and models suggest much larger sinks 2-3.6 PgC/yr (e.g., Tans et al. 1990, Ciais et al. 1995). The work carried out with this grant calculated the flux attributable to changes in land use. The estimated flux was somewhat smaller than the flux calculated from inventory data suggesting that environmental changes have led to a small accumulation of carbon in forests that exceeds the accumulation expected from past rates of harvest. Two publications have described these results (Houghton 1996, 1998). The large difference between these estimates and those obtained with atmospheric data and models remains unexplained. The recent estimate of a 1.7 PgC/yr sink in North America, alone (Fan et al. 1998), is particularly difficult to explain. That part of the sink attributable to land-use change, however, is defined as a result of this grant.

The general purpose of this research was to improve and update (to 1990) estimates of the net flux of carbon between the world's terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere from changes in land use (e.g., deforestation and reforestation). The estimates are important for understanding the global carbon cycle, and for predicting future concentrations of atmospheric CO2 that will result from emissions. The emphasis of the first year's research was on the northern temperate zone and boreal forests, where the greatest discrepancy exists between estimates of flux. Forest inventories suggest net sinks of 0.6 PgC/yr; inversion analyses based on atmospheric data and models suggest much larger sinks 2-3.6 PgC/yr (e.g., Tans et al. 1990, Ciais et al. 1995). The work carried out with this grant calculated the flux attributable to changes in land use. The estimated flux was somewhat smaller than the flux calculated from inventory data suggesting that environmental changes have led to a small accumulation of carbon in forests that exceeds the accumulation expected from past rates of harvest. Two publications have described these results (Houghton 1996, 1998). The large difference between these estimates and those obtained with atmospheric data and models remains unexplained. The recent estimate of a 1.7 PgC/yr sink in North America, alone (Fan et al. 1998), is particularly difficult to explain. That part of the sink attributable to land-use change, however, is defined as a result of this grant.

Water availability plays an important role in the socio-economic development of a region. It is however, subject to the influence of large-scale circulation indices, resulting in periodic excesses and deficits. An assessment of the degree of correlation between climate indices and water availability, and the quantification of changes with respect to major climate events is important for long-term water resources planning and management, especially in transboundary basins as it can help in conflict avoidance. In this study we first establish the correlation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with gauged precipitation in the Rio Grande basin, and quantify the changes in water availability using runoff generated from the Noah land surface model. Both spatial and temporal variations are noted, with winter and spring being most influenced by conditions in the Pacific Ocean. Negative correlation is observed at the headwaters and positive correlation across the rest of the basin. The influence of individual ENSO events, classified using four different criteria, is also examined. El Ninos (La Ninas) generally cause an increase (decrease) in runoff, but the pattern is not consistent; percentage change in water availability varies across events. Further, positive PDO enhances the effect of El Nino and dampens that of La Nina, but during neutral/transitioning PDO, La Nina dominates meteorological conditions. Long El Ninos have more influence on water availability than short duration high intensity events. We also note that the percentage increase during El Ninos significantly offsets the drought-causing effect of La Ninas.

Book digitized by Google and uploaded to the Internet Archive by user tpb.

The utilization of remote sensing data for monitoring land use changes by means of digital image analysis is described. The following data were utilized: LANDSAT data from September 4, 1975, April 24, 1978, and September 8, 1981; LANDSAT paper photography data; area IV color photographs; IBGE topography maps, and auxiliary data about the Brazilian state of Santa Catarina. Three kinds of analyses of digital images were carried out. The project identified and mapped major classes of land use areas including urban areas, coal deposits, agricultural areas, forests, lakes, and flood plains. Five areas directly affected by coal exploration southeast of Santa Catarina are identified and described. In addition, the classification system used for organizing data about land cover in a hierarchical arrangement is presented. The project made use of two remote sensing data sources: data of MSS spectral (Mulitspectral Scanner System)/LANDSAT on a scale of 1:100,000 with approximately 80 m resolution, and infrared color aerial photographs on a scale of 1:45,000 with approximately 5 m resolution. Therefore, the classification system included three levels, two selected to be compatible with aerial photography data and the third to conform to the resolution of MSS/LANDSAT.

The techniques applied to MSS-LANDSAT data in the land-use mapping of Criciuma region (Santa Catarina state, Brazil) are presented along with the results of a classification accuracy estimate tested on the resulting map. The MSS-LANDSAT data digital processing involves noise suppression, features selection and a hybrid classifier. The accuracy test is made through comparisons with aerial photographs of sampled points. The utilization of digital processing to map the classes agricultural lands, forest lands and urban areas is recommended, while the coal refuse areas should be mapped visually.

The techniques applied to MSS-LANDSAT data in the land-use mapping of Criciuma region (Santa Catarina state, Brazil) are presented along with the results of a classification accuracy estimate tested on the resulting map. The MSS-LANDSAT data digital processing involves noise suppression, features selection and a hybrid classifier. The accuracy test is made through comparisons with aerial photographs of sampled points. The utilization of digital processing to map the classes agricultural lands, forest lands and urban areas is recommended, while the coal refuse areas should be mapped visually.

This study focuses on initial student interest in or demand for public, land-grant universities (PLGUs) within the six New England states for the years 1976-99. The study has three distinguishing features. First, time-series data for the six New England states are combined into a panel data set, and fixed effects and random effects models are used to estimate how selected factors affect the demand for PLGUs in the region. Second, this study utilizes data on the proportion of seniors in each state who had their test scores sent to particular PLGUs within the region as a measure of demand. Finally, student demand models are estimated for (1) demand for their own in-state PLGU and (2) demand for the University of New Hampshire among non-New Hampshire seniors in New England. The results for New England show that the changing pattern in the demand for PLGUs from 1976 through the late 1990s has been largely due to: changes in the relative price of attending public and competing institutions; changes in median family income; and the rising degree aspirations of college-bound seniors. (Contains 41 references.) (SM)

Investigating the prediction of land use changes is one of the crucial factors for understanding environmental transformations at all temporal and spatial scales. The present research aims to examine the trend of changes and predict the future land use status in the Zolachay Watershed located in West Azerbaijan Province, one of the sub-basins of Lake Urmia, in the last 33 years. For this purpose, first, the Sentinel-2 and Landsat 5,7 images for 1990, 2020, 2016, 2010, 2005, 2000, 1995, and 2023 were acquired from their official sites. Then, needed preprocessing methods were applied in various software environments, and the relevant images were produced inside the e Cognition software environment. Then, the nearest neighbor classification model was executed using the object-based method, and land use and landcover maps were generated. Finally, using the Markov Chain Cellular Automata (CA) method, simulations of land use changes for the year 2030 were performed. To assess the accuracy of the CA Markov model, the land use change map for 2023 was validated against the 2023 classification map. The final results indicate that applying knowledge-based methods, especially the nearest neighbor classification, allows for the product of land use maps with a high accuracy coefficient (Kappa 91%), followed by the Markov (CA) model change maps with an acceptable accuracy of 87%. The final results demonstrate that by 2030, agricultural land use will increase by 15.03%, residential areas by 9.0%, and drylands by about 14%. Soil land use will decrease by 23.68% and pastures by 6.5%. Overall, the final models indicate the high accuracy of knowledge-based and object-based methods, as well as the satisfactory performance of the Markov model in the study of land use changes. The findings of this research can serve as a reference in future environmental planning processes, aiming at sustainable recommendations and prudent land utilization. Extended Abstract Introduction Understanding land use changes is fundamental for analyzing environmental dynamics and managing natural resources at multiple scales. Remote sensing data combined with simulation models like the Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) enables effective monitoring and spatiotemporal prediction of land use patterns. Advanced object-based classification methods, using software such as eCognition, improve the accuracy of land cover analysis. Numerous global and regional studies demonstrate the efficacy of these approaches in assessing land use trends. This study aims to analyze the land use changes in the Zolachay watershed, a sub-basin of Lake Urmia, from 1990 to 2023 and predict future changes up to 2030, utilizing Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and advanced image processing techniques to provide valuable data for watershed management and environmental planning. Material and Methods The Zolachay watershed, a sub-basin of Lake Urmia located in the northwest of the lake, covers an area of 2,258 km². Originating from the Qaradash and Saridash mountains near the Iran-Turkey border, the perennial Zolachay River flows through several villages before emptying into the northwest part of Lake Urmia. In order to produce land use maps in the present study, Landsat 5, 7 and Sentinel 2 satellite images were used, with a spatial resolution of 30 and 10 meters and having various spectral ranges. Based on the research objective, which is to detect land use changes, considering the knowledge of the study area and Google Earth images and training points taken by GPS, land use classes were divided based on water area use, residential areas, pasture, salt marsh, gardens and irrigated lands, dry lands and soil. Image classification with the object-oriented method was used using the nearest neighbor NNC algorithm and samples were selected for each class according to the visual characteristics, and classification conditions were defined for each land use class. Land use maps were extracted for 8 periods with the object-oriented method, the area of ​​the classified land uses was calculated. In the next step, land use change prediction was performed using Markov and CA-Markov. In this study, after formatting the classified images and valuing the land use classes, Markov chain calculations were performed using combination functions in TerrSet 2020 software. Then, land use prediction layers were generated and the final results were evaluated. These results were transferred to other software for additional analyses. Subsequently, the digital layers were imported into ArcGIS 10.8 software, targeted analyses and layer combinations were performed, and the final results were extracted.   Results and Discussion To verify the accuracy of the classification map of the Zolacha watershed in 2023, it was compared with the forecast map in 2023. The values ​​of Kno, Klocation, Klocationstrata and the standard kappa values ​​Kstandard were obtained as 0.87%, 0.93%, 0.93% and 0.84%, respectively. The results show that the area of ​​agricultural land use has increased rapidly, so that the area of ​​irrigated agriculture land use will increase from 36.8% and 89.6% of the total area of ​​the basin in 2016 to more than 39.23% and 46.21% in 2030. And the area of ​​pasture and soil land use will decrease from 36.20% and 47.93% of the total area of ​​the basin in 2016 to 29.7% and 24.25% in 2030, respectively. More precisely, the area of ​​two land uses, irrigated areas and pastures, has decreased, and dryland, residential, orchards and irrigated lands and salt marshes have increased. And it is predicted that in 2030, the area of ​​land uses, irrigated areas and pastures will decrease, and the area of ​​residential, orchards and irrigated lands, dryland and salt marshes will increase. Finally, the land uses of irrigated areas and orchards, dryland, residential, irrigated areas and salt marshes with an area of ​​188.74, 157.61, 3.78, 8.1 and 0.12 km2 of total area in 1990 will reach 18.528, 63.484, 36.24, 9.2 and 0.001 km2 of total area in 2030. Based on the results of the land use change trend in the present study, the most land use changes are related to the conversion of soil and pasture land to total irrigated land and orchards, dryland and residential land. Conclusions From the results obtained, practical strategies and measures can be taken to control land use change and preserve natural lands. These measures can include measures to preserve sensitive areas such as water areas and pastures, sustainable development of gardens, and upgrading urban infrastructure in residential areas. These approaches seek to maintain ecological and economic balance in the region and can help improve the quality of life of the community and protect the environment. Also, land use change is evaluated as a balancing factor of ecological, hydrological, and economic components, and its effects can affect the economic situation and lifestyle of the people of the region. These findings can be used in the future environmental planning process, especially in the development of sustainable recommendations and principled land use.

Investigating the prediction of land use changes is one of the crucial factors for understanding environmental transformations at all temporal and spatial scales. The present research aims to examine the trend of changes and predict the future land use status in the Zolachay Watershed located in West Azerbaijan Province, one of the sub-basins of Lake Urmia, in the last 33 years. For this purpose, first, the Sentinel-2 and Landsat 5,7 images for 1990, 2020, 2016, 2010, 2005, 2000, 1995, and 2023 were acquired from their official sites. Then, needed preprocessing methods were applied in various software environments, and the relevant images were produced inside the e Cognition software environment. Then, the nearest neighbor classification model was executed using the object-based method, and land use and landcover maps were generated. Finally, using the Markov Chain Cellular Automata (CA) method, simulations of land use changes for the year 2030 were performed. To assess the accuracy of the CA Markov model, the land use change map for 2023 was validated against the 2023 classification map. The final results indicate that applying knowledge-based methods, especially the nearest neighbor classification, allows for the product of land use maps with a high accuracy coefficient (Kappa 91%), followed by the Markov (CA) model change maps with an acceptable accuracy of 87%. The final results demonstrate that by 2030, agricultural land use will increase by 15.03%, residential areas by 9.0%, and drylands by about 14%. Soil land use will decrease by 23.68% and pastures by 6.5%. Overall, the final models indicate the high accuracy of knowledge-based and object-based methods, as well as the satisfactory performance of the Markov model in the study of land use changes. The findings of this research can serve as a reference in future environmental planning processes, aiming at sustainable recommendations and prudent land utilization. Extended Abstract Introduction Understanding land use changes is fundamental for analyzing environmental dynamics and managing natural resources at multiple scales. Remote sensing data combined with simulation models like the Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) enables effective monitoring and spatiotemporal prediction of land use patterns. Advanced object-based classification methods, using software such as eCognition, improve the accuracy of land cover analysis. Numerous global and regional studies demonstrate the efficacy of these approaches in assessing land use trends. This study aims to analyze the land use changes in the Zolachay watershed, a sub-basin of Lake Urmia, from 1990 to 2023 and predict future changes up to 2030, utilizing Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and advanced image processing techniques to provide valuable data for watershed management and environmental planning. Material and Methods The Zolachay watershed, a sub-basin of Lake Urmia located in the northwest of the lake, covers an area of 2,258 km². Originating from the Qaradash and Saridash mountains near the Iran-Turkey border, the perennial Zolachay River flows through several villages before emptying into the northwest part of Lake Urmia. In order to produce land use maps in the present study, Landsat 5, 7 and Sentinel 2 satellite images were used, with a spatial resolution of 30 and 10 meters and having various spectral ranges. Based on the research objective, which is to detect land use changes, considering the knowledge of the study area and Google Earth images and training points taken by GPS, land use classes were divided based on water area use, residential areas, pasture, salt marsh, gardens and irrigated lands, dry lands and soil. Image classification with the object-oriented method was used using the nearest neighbor NNC algorithm and samples were selected for each class according to the visual characteristics, and classification conditions were defined for each land use class. Land use maps were extracted for 8 periods with the object-oriented method, the area of ​​the classified land uses was calculated. In the next step, land use change prediction was performed using Markov and CA-Markov. In this study, after formatting the classified images and valuing the land use classes, Markov chain calculations were performed using combination functions in TerrSet 2020 software. Then, land use prediction layers were generated and the final results were evaluated. These results were transferred to other software for additional analyses. Subsequently, the digital layers were imported into ArcGIS 10.8 software, targeted analyses and layer combinations were performed, and the final results were extracted.   Results and Discussion To verify the accuracy of the classification map of the Zolacha watershed in 2023, it was compared with the forecast map in 2023. The values ​​of Kno, Klocation, Klocationstrata and the standard kappa values ​​Kstandard were obtained as 0.87%, 0.93%, 0.93% and 0.84%, respectively. The results show that the area of ​​agricultural land use has increased rapidly, so that the area of ​​irrigated agriculture land use will increase from 36.8% and 89.6% of the total area of ​​the basin in 2016 to more than 39.23% and 46.21% in 2030. And the area of ​​pasture and soil land use will decrease from 36.20% and 47.93% of the total area of ​​the basin in 2016 to 29.7% and 24.25% in 2030, respectively. More precisely, the area of ​​two land uses, irrigated areas and pastures, has decreased, and dryland, residential, orchards and irrigated lands and salt marshes have increased. And it is predicted that in 2030, the area of ​​land uses, irrigated areas and pastures will decrease, and the area of ​​residential, orchards and irrigated lands, dryland and salt marshes will increase. Finally, the land uses of irrigated areas and orchards, dryland, residential, irrigated areas and salt marshes with an area of ​​188.74, 157.61, 3.78, 8.1 and 0.12 km2 of total area in 1990 will reach 18.528, 63.484, 36.24, 9.2 and 0.001 km2 of total area in 2030. Based on the results of the land use change trend in the present study, the most land use changes are related to the conversion of soil and pasture land to total irrigated land and orchards, dryland and residential land. Conclusions From the results obtained, practical strategies and measures can be taken to control land use change and preserve natural lands. These measures can include measures to preserve sensitive areas such as water areas and pastures, sustainable development of gardens, and upgrading urban infrastructure in residential areas. These approaches seek to maintain ecological and economic balance in the region and can help improve the quality of life of the community and protect the environment. Also, land use change is evaluated as a balancing factor of ecological, hydrological, and economic components, and its effects can affect the economic situation and lifestyle of the people of the region. These findings can be used in the future environmental planning process, especially in the development of sustainable recommendations and principled land use.

Dryland biodiversity plays important roles in the fight against desertification and poverty, but is highly vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change. However, little research has been conducted on dual pressure from climate and land cover changes on biodiversity in arid and semi-arid environments. Concequntly, it is crutial to understand the potential impacts of future climate and land cover changes on dryland biodiversity. Here, using the Chinese Altai Mountains as a case study area, we predicted the future spatial distributions and local assemblages of nine threatened mammal species under projected climate and land cover change scenarios for the period 2010–2050. The results show that remarkable declines in mammal species richness as well as high rates of species turnover are seen to occur across large areas in the Chinese Altai Mountains, highlighting an urgent need for developing protection strategies for areas outside of current nature reserve network. The selected mammals are predicted to lose more than 50% of their current ranges on average, which is much higher than species' range gains (around 15%) under future climate and land cover changes. Most of the species are predicted to contract their ranges while moving eastwards and to higher altitudes, raising the need for establishing cross-border migration pathways for species. Furthermore, the inclusion of land cover changes had notable effects on projected range shifts of individual species under climate changes, demonstrating that land cover changes should be incorporated into the assessment of future climate impacts to facilitate biodiversity conservation in arid and semi-arid environments.

This is version 3.0 of the protocol for the systematic map "Effects of land use and land cover changes on biodiversity, ecosystem services, and carbon storage in Norway: A systematic map and decision support tool". It is an updated version of teh protocol, after tests-screening revealed a need to clarify some eligibility criteria. The protocol is subject to review by an expert group and invited stakeholders, and will be updated based on the comments and input from the reviewer. After the protocol has been revised, a new version will be registered (published), and assigned a new doi.

p. [131]-148, [1] leaf of plates : 23 cm

International Conference Identifying the Research Basis for Sustainable Development of the Mountain Regions in Southeastern Europe 24 - 26 April 2009 Borovets, Bulgaria

International Conference Identifying the Research Basis for Sustainable Development of the Mountain Regions in Southeastern Europe 24 - 26 April 2009 Borovets, Bulgaria

Wetlands, as the transition zones between land and aquatic systems, are one of nature's most biologically diverse ecosystem types and are important environments for humans. In arid deserts, the roles of wetlands are particularly important. The Hongjian Nur region (HJN), which has the largest desert freshwater lake in China, is not only a national reserve but also the largest breeding ground for Larus relictus in the world. However, due to climate change and human activities, extensive wetland changes have occurred in the HJN region in recent decades. To investigate the changes of wetlands in the HJN region, the dynamics of wetlands and surrounding land cover types in this region over the past three decades were studied using remote sensing. In addition, how these dynamics have been affected by climatic and human factors was analyzed. The results suggested that the area of wetlands presented a decreasing trend over the studied time period from 62.54 km 2 to 35.89 km 2 , with an average rate of change of −0.66 km 2 /year. The reduction in wetland area was mainly caused by climatic and human factors. The contribution of temperature and precipitation to vegetation growth were small, and the impacts of human activities on the wetland areas of the HJN region were mainly caused by agricultural irrigation, artificial surface expansion and ecological water use. The results also suggested that human activities in arid regions may have negative impacts on fragile wetland ecosystems.

This article is from International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health , volume 10 . Abstract The effects on water quality of land use and land cover changes, which are associated with human activities and natural factors, are poorly identified. Fine resolution satellite imagery provides opportunities for land cover monitoring and assessment. The multiple satellite images after typhoon events collected from 2001 to 2010 covering land areas and land cover conditions are evaluated by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The relationship between land cover and observed water quality, such as suspended solids (SS) and nitrate-nitrogens (NO3-N), are explored in the study area. Results show that the long-term variations in water quality are explained by NDVI data in the reservoir buffer zones. Suspended solid and nitrate concentrations are related to average NDVI values on multiple spatial scales. Annual NO3-N concentrations are positively correlated with an average NDVI with a 1 km reservoir buffer area, and the SS after typhoon events associated with landslides are negatively correlated with the average NDVI in the entire watershed. This study provides an approach for assessing the influences of land cover on variations in water quality.

This article is from International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health , volume 10 . Abstract The effects on water quality of land use and land cover changes, which are associated with human activities and natural factors, are poorly identified. Fine resolution satellite imagery provides opportunities for land cover monitoring and assessment. The multiple satellite images after typhoon events collected from 2001 to 2010 covering land areas and land cover conditions are evaluated by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The relationship between land cover and observed water quality, such as suspended solids (SS) and nitrate-nitrogens (NO3-N), are explored in the study area. Results show that the long-term variations in water quality are explained by NDVI data in the reservoir buffer zones. Suspended solid and nitrate concentrations are related to average NDVI values on multiple spatial scales. Annual NO3-N concentrations are positively correlated with an average NDVI with a 1 km reservoir buffer area, and the SS after typhoon events associated with landslides are negatively correlated with the average NDVI in the entire watershed. This study provides an approach for assessing the influences of land cover on variations in water quality.

"Growth Changes of the Radula in Land-Mollusks" is an article from Proceedings of the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia, Volume 45 . View more articles from Proceedings of the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia . View this article on JSTOR . View this article's JSTOR metadata . You may also retrieve all of this items metadata in JSON at the following URL: https://archive.org/metadata/jstor-4062036

Accurate information on land use and land cover change (LULCC) is critical for understanding the causes of change and for developing effective policies and strategies to slow and reverse land degradation. In Ethiopia, the speed and scale of LULCC has been accelerated in the last 3–4 decades of the 21st century. The objectives of this study were to assess: (i) the extent of LULCC and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the link to land degradation; (ii) the causes of LULCC and implication for climate change adaptation. Satellite images analysis was used to detect the change in area and vegetation index, and farmers’ perception to see the magnitude of LULCC dynamics and causes of deforestation. Correlations were made between vegetation index with dry season rainfall and temperature. The analysis of confusion matrix of LULC classification showed 87% accuracy with Kappa coefficient of 0.84. In the period 1986–2016, agriculture and settlement areas have increased by 250% and 618%, respectively. On the other hand, forests and woodlands have decreased by 72% and 84%, respectively. These were also validated with the farmers’ quantification results with similar trends. Different causes have played roles in the dynamics of LULCC. The results showed that vegetation dynamics vary both spatially and temporally against precipitation and temperature. This study informs the need to focus on halting deforestation and development of alternative energy sources. It further helps to design future land management directions, landscape based adaptation and rehabilitation strategies to be considered by policy makers.

Water pollution and water scarcity are among the main environmental challenges faced by the European Union, and multiple stressors compromise the integrity of water resources and ecosystems. Particularly in lowland areas of northern Europe, high population density, flood protection and, especially, intensive agriculture, are important drivers of water quality degradation. In addition, future climate and land use changes may interact, with uncertain consequences for water resources. Modelling approaches have become essential to address water issues and to evaluate ecosystem management. In this work, three multi-stressor future storylines combining climatic and socio-economic changes, defined at European level, have been downscaled for the Odense Fjord catchment (Denmark), giving three scenarios: High-Tech agriculture (HT), Agriculture for Nature (AN) and Market-Driven agriculture (MD). The impacts of these scenarios on water discharge and inorganic and organic nutrient loads to the streams have been simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The results revealed that the scenario-specific climate inputs were most important when simulating hydrology, increasing river discharge in the HT and MD scenarios (which followed the high emission 8.5 representative concentration pathway, RCP), while remaining stable in the AN scenario (RCP 4.5). Moreover, discharge was the main driver of changes in organic nutrients and inorganic phosphorus loads that consequently increased in a high emission scenario. Nevertheless, both land use (via inputs of fertilizer) and climate changes affected the nitrate transport. Different levels of fertilization yielded a decrease in the nitrate load in AN and an increase in MD. In HT, however, nitrate losses remained stable because the fertilization decrease was counteracted by a flow increase. Thus, our results suggest that N loads will ultimately depend on future land use and management in an interaction with climate changes, and this knowledge is of utmost importance for the achievement of European environmental policy goals.

As part of the overall Mississippi River Gulf Outlet (MRGO) Ecosystem Restoration Study, the Central Wetlands Unit (CWU) is a critical coastal restoration project proposed to mitigate the effects of the MRGO dredging and dredged material placement in southeastern coastal Louisiana. An in-depth knowledge of recent and historical coastal landscape history is a key knowledge element required by project managers to make informed decisions for implementing the overall CWU restoration strategy. The goal of this study was to provide a refined landscape history for the CWU that both exceeds and supplements information provided by existing coastal habitat and land loss data sets. The research identified and quantified recent and historical land change trends and general forested wetland habitat changes within the CWU from 1935 to 2010. The CWU land area changes were analyzed using a series of land-water data sets obtained from classified Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite imagery, historic aerial photography and topographic quadrangles. Wetland forested habitat changes were evaluated using two pre-construction (1935 and 1956) and two post-construction (1965 and 1974) data sets bracketing the construction of the MRGO (1965). The study revealed that the CWU net land loss from 1935 to 2010 was 6,688 acres with a land area change rate of -87.6 + or - 11.1 acres/yr (r sq = 0.68). Rapid loss of forested habitat also occurred within the CWU throughout the 1935 to 1974 analysis period. In 1935, the CWU consisted of 13,924 acres of forested habitat and by 1974 virtually all were lost. The primary events affecting historical landscape change within the CWU over the past 75 years are linked to (1) cumulative hurricane impacts causing physical removal of marsh, (2) partial flooding of impounded areas after Hurricane Betsy, (3) construction of the MRGO, and (4) salinity increases causing habitat conversion.

This article is from SpringerPlus , volume 2 . Abstract A series of soil conservation measures have been carried out to reduce soil loss on the Loess Plateau of China since 1950s, and the biologic measures were implemented according to topographic factors such as slope and elevation; therefore, the changes in topographic factors of land use can indicate the effects of the biologic measures. The objectives of this study were to (i) analyze the land use changes in the Jing River catchment during 1986-2000 and to (ii) examine the effects of biologic measures through relating land use changes with topographic factors. During 1986-2000, the dominant land use types were farmland and grassland (88% of the whole catchment). Compared with 1986, farmland and forest decreased while grassland and construction land increased with little changes in water and unused land. Three main conversion types occurred, i.e. the mutual conversion between forest and grassland, the mutual conversion between farmland and grassland, and farmland converted to other types. The elevation of farmland, forest, construction land and water increased, while that of grassland and unused land decreased. The mean slope gradient of each land use type changed little except for unused land. The above results suggested farmland has greatly decreased on tableland region due to the increase in construction land, forest has moved to gully region while grassland has increased despite elevation and slope. The land use in the Jing River catchment during 1986-2000 was changing to a more reasonable spatial pattern.

Document number CIA-RDP82-00457R000600750006-1 declassified and released through the CIA's CREST database. Previously available only on four computers located outside of Washington D.C., the Agency was successfully pressured into putting the files online as a result of a MuckRock lawsuit and the efforts of Emma Best. The metadata was collected by Data.World, and the files are now being archived and made text searchable by the Internet Archive.

Increasing human activities worldwide have significantly altered the natural ecosystems and consequently, the services they provide. This is no exception in Nigeria, where land-use/land-cover has undergone a series of dramatic changes over the years mainly due to the ever-growing large population. However, estimating the impact of such changes on a wide range of ecosystem services is seldom attempted. Thus, on the basis of GlobeLand30 land-cover maps for 2000 and 2010 and using the value transfer methodology, we evaluated changes in the value of ecosystem services in response to land-use/land-cover dynamics in Nigeria. The results showed that over the 10-year period, cultivated land sprawl over the forests and savannahs was predominant, and occurred mainly in the northern region of the country. During this period, we calculated an increase in the total ecosystem services value (ESV) in Nigeria from 665.93 billion (2007 US$) in 2000 to 667.44 billion (2007 US$) in 2010, 97.38% of which was contributed by cultivated land. The value of provisioning services increased while regulation, support, recreation and culture services decreased, amongst which, water regulation (−11.01%), gas regulation (−7.13%), cultural (−4.84%) and climate regulation (−4.3%) ecosystem functions are estimated as the most impacted. The increase in the total ESV in Nigeria associated with the huge increase in ecosystem services due to cultivated land expansion may make land-use changes (i.e. the ever-increasing agricultural expansion in Nigeria) appear economically profitable. However, continuous loss of services such as climate and water regulation that are largely provided by the natural ecosystems can result in huge economic losses that may exceed the apparent gains from cultivated land development. Therefore, we advocate that the conservation of the natural ecosystem should be a priority in future land-use management in Nigeria, a country highly vulnerable to climate change and incessantly impacted by natural disasters such as flooding.

This article is from Sensors (Basel, Switzerland) , volume 8 . Abstract Land use/cover change (LUCC), which results from the complex interaction of social, ecological and geophysical processes, is a major issue and the main cause of global environmental change. This study analyzed the land use/cover dynamics and their environmental and socio-political forces in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River from 1980 to 2000 by using remote sensing, climatic and socio-economic data from both research institutes and government departments. The results indicated that there had been significant land use/cover changes between 1980 and 2000 in the study area, which were characterized by a severe replacement of cropland and woodland with grassland and built-up land. The transition matrices highlight the dominant dynamic events and the internal conversions between land use/cover types during the study period and reveal two distinct transition phases. Land use/cover changes in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River during 1980 to 2000, while restricted by environmental attributes, were strongly driven by socio-political factors. However, excessively pursuing higher land use benefits likely results in serious environmental degradation. This study suggests that the restructuring of land use should be based on land suitability and sustainable protection of fragile environment in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. A thorough comprehension of historical changes will enhance our capability to predict future land use change and contribute to effective management strategies and policies for the rational land use.

"Final supplements [to] bulletins no's 94-9, 94-10, 94-11, 94-16."

Land is one of the inputs of the production sector. It plays an important role not only in the agricultural economy and natural resources but also in the economy of the whole country and it is necessary to pay attention to the land and the changes that have taken place in it. The present study was conducted to investigate the trend of land use change in Ojan Chay catchment using remote sensing and GIS. Multi-timer images of 1987 TM, ETM + 2002, and ETM + 2015 were used in this study, and land use maps were prepared based on digital processing of maximum probability and backup vector machine. The type of land use changes in the region was obtained. According to the results, the SVM method is more efficient for estimating land use changes in the study area so that the extracted results have a higher percentage of accuracy and kappa coefficient. From the results of evaluations, it can be deduced that the trend of land use change in some land uses such as agricultural lands and pastures is high. Agricultural lands have fluctuated from 33% to 37% over a period of 28 years and rangelands have decreased from 51% to 49%, with these two uses having the most changes. Finally, due to the fact that most of the changes in rangeland change have been related to agricultural lands and vice versa, therefore, the need to focus land management and improvement activities on this type of land use increases.

This article is from Biotechnology for Biofuels , volume 7 . Abstract The issue of indirect land use changes (ILUC) caused by the promotion of transport biofuels has attracted considerable attention in recent years. In this paper, we reviewed the current literature on modelling work to estimate emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) caused by ILUC of biofuels. We also reviewed the development of ILUC policies in the EU. Our review of past modelling work revealed that most studies employ economic equilibrium modelling and focus on ethanol fuels, especially with maize as feedstock. It also revealed major variation in the results from the models, especially for biodiesel fuels. However, there has been some convergence of results over time, particularly for ethanol from maize, wheat and sugar cane. Our review of EU policy developments showed that the introduction of fuel-specific ILUC factors has been officially suggested by policymakers to deal with the ILUC of biofuels. The values proposed as ILUC factors in the policymaking process in the case of ethanol fuels are generally in line with the results of the latest modelling exercises, in particular for first-generation ethanol fuels from maize and sugar cane, while those for biodiesel fuels are somewhat higher. If the proposed values were introduced into EU policy, no (first-generation) biodiesel fuel would be able to comply with the EU GHG saving requirements. We identified a conflict between the demand from EU policymakers for exact, highly specific values and the capacity of the current models to supply results with that level of precision. We concluded that alternative policy approaches to ILUC factors should be further explored.

This article is from Biotechnology for Biofuels , volume 7 . Abstract The issue of indirect land use changes (ILUC) caused by the promotion of transport biofuels has attracted considerable attention in recent years. In this paper, we reviewed the current literature on modelling work to estimate emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) caused by ILUC of biofuels. We also reviewed the development of ILUC policies in the EU. Our review of past modelling work revealed that most studies employ economic equilibrium modelling and focus on ethanol fuels, especially with maize as feedstock. It also revealed major variation in the results from the models, especially for biodiesel fuels. However, there has been some convergence of results over time, particularly for ethanol from maize, wheat and sugar cane. Our review of EU policy developments showed that the introduction of fuel-specific ILUC factors has been officially suggested by policymakers to deal with the ILUC of biofuels. The values proposed as ILUC factors in the policymaking process in the case of ethanol fuels are generally in line with the results of the latest modelling exercises, in particular for first-generation ethanol fuels from maize and sugar cane, while those for biodiesel fuels are somewhat higher. If the proposed values were introduced into EU policy, no (first-generation) biodiesel fuel would be able to comply with the EU GHG saving requirements. We identified a conflict between the demand from EU policymakers for exact, highly specific values and the capacity of the current models to supply results with that level of precision. We concluded that alternative policy approaches to ILUC factors should be further explored.

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